Vance choice heightens European fears over Trump presidency

European politicians and diplomats are increasingly concerned about the future of their relationship with the United States if Donald Trump wins a second term as president. The recent announcement of Ohio Senator JD Vance as Trump's running mate has heightened these concerns, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine, security, and trade. Vance has been a vocal critic of US military aid to Ukraine, arguing that Europe should prepare for the US to shift its focus to East Asia. He believes that Europe's reliance on US security has weakened its own defenses. Nils Schmid, a senior member of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party, expressed confidence that a Republican presidency would remain within NATO, despite Vance's more isolationist stance and Trump's unpredictability. However, Schmid warned of the potential for new trade wars with the US under a second Trump presidency. An EU diplomat noted that after four years of Trump, no one is naive about the implications of his return to power. The diplomat likened the EU to a boat preparing for a storm, acknowledging that it would be a rough ride regardless of any preparations. The US is Ukraine's most significant ally, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed confidence in continued cooperation, even if Trump returns to office. Zelensky believes that most of the Republican party supports Ukraine, but Vance's past comments and actions suggest otherwise. Vance played a key role in delaying a $60 billion military aid package from Washington and has shown little concern for Ukraine's fate. Yevhen Mahda, Executive Director of the Institute of World Policy think tank in Kyiv, emphasized the need to convince Vance to change his stance. Mahda suggested inviting Vance to Ukraine to witness firsthand how American money is being used. The key question for Kyiv is how much influence Vance will have on Trump's decisions. Mahda acknowledged that Trump's unpredictability could pose challenges for Ukraine in the lead-up to the US presidential election. Hungary's Viktor Orban is the most prominent supporter of the Trump-Vance ticket within the European Union. Orban recently visited Trump and maintains close ties with both Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. In a letter to EU leaders, Orban claimed that Trump would quickly push for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine if he wins the presidency. Zelensky has indicated his willingness for Russia to participate in a peace summit in November, but he clarified that this decision was not influenced by Western pressure. Orban's recent diplomatic efforts in Moscow and Beijing have led to accusations that he is exploiting Hungary's rotating presidency of the European Council. As a result, European Commission officials have been advised not to attend meetings in Hungary. During Trump's first term, the US imposed tariffs on EU-produced steel and aluminum, which were later paused under President Joe Biden. Trump has since proposed a 10% tariff on all overseas imports if he returns to the White House. The prospect of renewed economic confrontation with the US is viewed as a negative outcome in most European capitals. Schmid emphasized the need to prepare for another round of trade wars. Earlier this year, Vance criticized Berlin for its lack of military preparedness, arguing that Germany's industrial base for arms production is inadequate. This criticism adds pressure on Germany, Europe's largest economy, to take a more active role in European security. Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Scholz faced criticism for his hesitancy in supplying weapons to Kyiv. However, his allies point out that Germany is second only to the US in military aid to Ukraine and has met the 2% GDP defense spending target for the first time since the end of the Cold War. Schmid believes that Germany is on the right track but acknowledges the need to rebuild an army that has been neglected for 15 to 20 years. Despite these efforts, some observers remain skeptical about the seriousness and sufficiency of European preparations. There are few leaders with the political clout to champion European security. Scholz's understated style and reluctance to take bold foreign policy positions, combined with the possibility of being voted out of office next year, add to the uncertainty. French President Emmanuel Macron is also in a weakened position after calling parliamentary elections that left his country in political paralysis. Polish President Andrzej Duda warned that if Ukraine loses its struggle against Russia, a war between Russia and the West could become imminent. He described Russia as a voracious monster that would continue to attack.