Mosquito-borne disease risk looms for UK - study

Health officials in the UK are issuing a warning that certain mosquito species capable of transmitting diseases such as dengue fever, chikungunya and zika virus could potentially inhabit parts of the UK by the 2040s and 2050s. This warning is based on a report by the UK Health Security Agency, which considers a worst-case scenario involving high emissions and a temperature increase of 4C by 2100. The report also predicts an increase in heat-related deaths and flooding. However, it emphasizes that many of these potential problems can still be averted with prompt and decisive action.

The report, which was compiled by 90 experts, consolidates the substantial and growing body of evidence regarding the current impact of climate change on human health. It also makes projections based on a plausible worst-case scenario that could occur if international commitments to combat climate change are not adequately upheld. Current estimates from the United Nations Environment Programme suggest that the world is on track for a warming of about 2. 7C by 2100, based on current pledges, although the exact figures remain uncertain. Prof Nigel Arnell, a professor of climate change at the University of Reading, advocates for preparing for the worst-case scenario when planning health resources, given the significant consequences of underestimating the risk.

One major health concern highlighted in the report is the potential for the UK to become a suitable habitat for invasive species such as the Asian tiger mosquito, also known as Aedes albopictus. This mosquito species can transmit harmful viruses after biting infected individuals. The report suggests that London could see regular cases of dengue fever by 2060. This virus is most commonly found in tropical regions and can cause serious illness. England would be the first country in the UK to be affected, with Wales, Northern Ireland and parts of the Scottish Lowlands also potentially becoming suitable habitats later in the century.