Xi-Biden summit: why the US push for military guard rails with China could be a near miss

In the days leading up to a significant summit between the leaders of the United States and China, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Washington. During his visit, he was questioned about the possibility of setting up 'guard rails'—safety measures for military interactions. Wang Yi dismissed the idea, suggesting that the United States should instead honor its past promises regarding Taiwan. The U. S. has been urging China to agree to these safety measures, including a direct communication line, to prevent misunderstandings between their military forces. These measures are hoped to be one of the outcomes of the upcoming summit between President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden. However, experts doubt that such agreements will effectively reduce the dangerous encounters between the two nations' militaries, as China seems to have little interest in changing its current approach. nnIn recent years, there has been a significant increase in aggressive and risky encounters between Chinese and American military forces, particularly in international waters. A Pentagon report highlighted over 180 such incidents in the past two years, which is more than the total number of incidents in the previous decade. This escalation raises concerns about the potential for serious miscalculations. Analysts note that if the situation were reversed, with Chinese military forces operating close to American shores, the U. S. would likely respond strongly. Despite the push for safety agreements, experts from institutions like the Brookings Institution and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace are skeptical about China's willingness to establish such guard rails, viewing them as a way for the U. S. to limit China's military actions without reducing provocations. nnHistorically, the U. S. and China had mechanisms in place to manage military interactions, such as the Defence Policy Coordination Talks and the Maritime Military Consultative Agreement. However, these mechanisms have weakened over time as China's military capabilities have grown and its foreign policy has become more assertive. Recent events, including a visit to Taiwan by then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have further strained military communications. As the Xi-Biden summit approaches, there is a modest hope for progress, but the risk of accidental conflict is increasing due to the lack of effective communication and crisis management. Former officials involved in negotiations emphasize that any discussions on guard rails must address the underlying policies that lead to potential crises. The future of U. S. -China military relations remains uncertain, with the need for dialogue on strategic and operational issues being more crucial than ever to prevent further deterioration of the bilateral relationship.