Vulnerable time for Europe as clock ticks down for Biden

Europe is facing a challenging period as the clock ticks down for President Biden. Recently, leaders from the UK, US, Germany, and France gathered in Berlin for an important meeting. They posed for a family photo, smiling and waving, which highlighted their unity during these trying times. Biden's visit to Germany was brief, but he made the most of it to convey his ongoing ambitions on the global stage before he leaves office in January. His focus is particularly on the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East. Biden's approach to European defense marks a significant departure from that of his predecessor, Donald Trump, who is now a candidate for the 2024 presidential election. In recognition of Biden's efforts, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier awarded him the highest honor in Germany, the special class of the Grand Cross. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion, is the most severe war Europe has faced since World War Two. As it did 80 years ago, Europe is looking to the US for coordinated leadership and military support. Biden stressed that more action is necessary, stating, 'We must keep going until Ukraine wins a just and durable peace. We must sustain our support. ' The outcome of the upcoming US election in November will have significant implications for Europe. The continent has relied heavily on US military aid to assist Ukraine, with Germany being the second-largest donor after the US. However, the scale of Germany's contributions is minor compared to that of its American ally. Many experts believe that the days of generous American support will come to an end once Biden leaves the White House. Even if Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, becomes the next president, it is anticipated that Congress will shift its focus to other foreign policy issues, such as China and Taiwan. During Trump's administration from 2016 to 2020, relations with NATO were often tumultuous. Trump was known for his admiration of Russian President Vladimir Putin and has not publicly stated whether he supports Ukraine's victory in the conflict. Despite discussions among NATO members about 'Trump-proofing' European defense in anticipation of the upcoming US election, there is little evidence that such preparations have been effectively implemented or that Europe would be able to manage independently if necessary. Following Russia's invasion in 2022, the German Chancellor announced a significant shift in Germany's military policy, marking a historical turning point for the country. This change signifies Germany's commitment to overcoming its Nazi past and investing heavily in its military to support its allies. However, this week, German intelligence officials warned that Russia's continued military investments could enable it to threaten NATO by the end of the decade. Unfortunately, Germany's plans for military reform have become mired in bureaucratic delays, and the government has yet to finalize a future defense budget. Diplomats express concern that Biden is worried about Europe's resolve, especially as signs of 'Ukraine fatigue' emerge among allies grappling with their own domestic challenges. This is particularly evident from the rise of far-right and far-left groups sympathetic to the Russian narrative, especially with a general election approaching next year. During the meeting in Berlin, Scholz and Biden were joined by leaders from the UK and France, who are also major donors to Ukraine. The four leaders, known as the 'Quad,' discussed not only Ukraine but also issues related to Iran and the broader Middle East. Their joint press statement reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Kyiv. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer remarked that Russia is becoming weaker and that the war is consuming a significant portion of Moscow's budget. He mentioned that they discussed 'what further capability, what further equipment and what further resources' they could provide to Ukraine, although he did not delve into specifics. However, specifics are precisely what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been requesting. He has asked for an official invitation to join NATO and the freedom to use long-range missiles supplied by the UK and France. So far, these requests have been denied. Critics of Biden and his NATO allies accuse them of dragging their feet due to fears of escalating tensions with Russia. Both Kyiv and Moscow have been closely monitoring Biden's 'farewell trip' to Berlin. They have heard the repeated assurances from the four NATO powers regarding ongoing support for Ukraine, but they have also observed a US president nearing the end of his term, a German chancellor facing potential electoral defeat, and a French president dealing with his own challenges. For Ukraine, additional assistance from its primary backers is urgently needed. The country is currently on the defensive against Russia along its front lines and is in a particularly vulnerable position. The rest of Europe is also feeling the strain.