US election polls: Who is ahead - Harris or Trump?

On November 5, voters in the United States will head to the polls to select their next president. This election is particularly significant as it presents the possibility of Kamala Harris becoming the first female president or Donald Trump securing a second term in office. Initially, this election was expected to be a rematch of the 2020 election, but the dynamics shifted in July when President Joe Biden suspended his campaign and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris. As the election day draws near, the central question remains: who will emerge victorious? Since Kamala Harris announced her candidacy at the end of July, she has consistently maintained a slight lead over Trump in national polling averages. This lead peaked at nearly four percentage points towards the end of August, following a surge in her polling numbers during the initial weeks of her campaign. However, since early September, the polling figures have stabilized, even after the candidates faced off in their only debate on September 10, which attracted nearly 70 million viewers. The poll tracker chart illustrates how little the race has shifted nationally in recent weeks, with trend lines indicating averages and individual poll results represented by dots for each candidate. While national polls serve as a useful indicator of a candidate's popularity across the country, they do not necessarily provide an accurate prediction of the election outcome. This is due to the United States' electoral college system, where each state is allocated a number of votes roughly proportional to its population. A total of 538 electoral college votes are available, and a candidate must secure at least 270 to win the presidency. Although there are 50 states in the U. S. , most tend to consistently vote for the same party, meaning that only a few states, known as battleground or swing states, will ultimately determine the election's outcome. Currently, polling data indicates a tight race in the seven battleground states for this election, with neither candidate holding a decisive advantage in any of them, according to polling averages. Analyzing trends since Harris entered the race reveals some differences among the states, but it is crucial to note that there are fewer state polls compared to national polls, resulting in less data to analyze. Additionally, every poll carries a margin of error, meaning the actual numbers could be higher or lower. In states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, the lead has shifted between candidates several times since early August, with Trump currently holding a slight edge. Conversely, in Nevada, Harris has maintained a slight lead. In the other three battleground states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—Harris has been leading since August, sometimes by two or three points. However, recent polling indicates that the race has tightened significantly, with Trump now holding a narrow lead in Pennsylvania. These three states were previously strongholds for the Democratic Party before Trump flipped them in 2016. Biden managed to reclaim them in 2020, and if Harris can do the same, she will be well-positioned to win the election. The dynamics of the race have shifted since Harris became the Democratic nominee; on the day Biden exited the race, he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average across the seven swing states. In Pennsylvania, Biden was behind by approximately 4. 5 percentage points when he withdrew. This state is crucial for both campaigns, as it has the highest number of electoral votes among the seven battleground states, making it easier to reach the necessary 270 votes. The averages presented in the graphics are compiled by 538, a part of the American news network ABC News. To create these averages, 538 gathers data from individual polls conducted both nationally and in battleground states by various polling companies. As part of their quality control, 538 only includes polls from companies that meet specific criteria, such as transparency regarding the number of respondents, the timing of the poll, and the methodology used (telephone calls, text messages, online surveys, etc. ). The reliability of polls is a topic of discussion, especially given that they suggest Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a few percentage points of each other in all swing states. When the race is this close, predicting a winner becomes challenging. Polls underestimated Trump's support in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Polling companies are working to address this issue in various ways, including adjusting their methods to better reflect the voting population's makeup. However, these adjustments are complex, and pollsters must still make educated guesses about factors such as voter turnout on November 5.