Could South America benefit from Trump's trade tariffs?

South America is currently experiencing a significant shift in trade dynamics due to recent decisions made by the United States government. When President Donald Trump announced new trade tariffs, many countries in South America felt a sense of relief. Most nations on the continent, including Brazil and Argentina, were assigned a low tariff rate of just 10%. However, Guyana and Venezuela initially faced higher tariffs of 38% and 15%, respectively, but these rates were later adjusted to 10%. This change is seen as a potential opportunity for South American countries to increase their exports, particularly in the agricultural sector. Brazil, for instance, is a major producer of beef and is looking to expand its market share in countries like Japan, which currently imports a significant amount of beef from the US. With the US imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods, South American products may become more appealing to buyers in the US and around the world. This situation mirrors past events when Trump’s tariffs on China led to a surge in Brazilian soybean exports as China shifted its purchases away from the US. Farmers in Brazil, such as Frederico D'Avila, believe that Trump's previous tariffs were beneficial for Brazilian agriculture, and they are hopeful for similar outcomes in the future. However, not all experts share this optimistic view. Juan Carlos Hallak, an international economics professor, argues that while South American countries may find new customers, the overall financial gains might not be as significant as expected. He points out that global commodity prices are influenced by various macroeconomic factors, and simply changing buyers does not guarantee increased profits. Additionally, other sectors in South America, such as the beef industry, are also looking to capitalize on the situation. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva recently visited Japan to promote Brazilian beef, hoping to capture a larger share of the Japanese market, which currently relies heavily on US imports. If Japan decides to buy more beef from Brazil, it could provide a significant boost to the Brazilian economy. Other industries, like coffee and footwear, may also benefit from the tariffs imposed on competitors in Asia. Brazil is the largest coffee producer in the world, and if tariffs on Vietnamese and Indonesian coffee are reinstated, Brazilian coffee could become more competitive in the US market. However, the potential benefits come with risks. Even with a 10% tariff, South American countries could still face reduced demand from the US if prices rise. This is particularly concerning for commodities that compete directly with US products, such as oil, soybeans, and metals like aluminum and steel. Argentina, which has a significant aluminum industry, is worried about losing access to the US market and facing increased competition from Chinese imports. The volatility in global commodity prices, especially in oil and copper, poses additional challenges for countries like Chile and Peru, where these exports are crucial to their economies. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, a former chief economist, warns that if Brazil and Argentina see a significant increase in exports to the US, they may face higher tariffs in return, as Trump aims to protect domestic production. The situation is complex, and while there are opportunities for South America, the potential risks and uncertainties make it difficult to predict the overall impact of these trade changes.