Why Pennsylvania could hold the keys to the White House

Pennsylvania is a state that plays a crucial role in the United States presidential elections. While the White House is located at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the real path to the presidency often goes through Pennsylvania, which is considered the most significant battleground state. According to Nate Silver, a well-known elections analyst, winning Pennsylvania gives a candidate over a 90% chance of winning the presidency. Patrick Murphy, a former congressman from Pennsylvania, referred to it as 'the granddaddy of all the swing states. ' With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is a key player in the electoral map. If the Democrats manage to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, along with one congressional district in Nebraska, they can secure the presidency. Conversely, if the Republicans win Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, Trump could return to the White House next year. Without Pennsylvania, Trump would face significant challenges in winning the election, as he would need to flip at least three states that Joe Biden won in 2020. Known as the Keystone State, Pennsylvania could indeed be the key to the White House. Additionally, the BBC will broadcast a special program about the US election in Pennsylvania on October 10, focusing on the issues and concerns of voters. Pennsylvania is not only valuable for its electoral votes; it also reflects a microcosm of the United States in terms of demographics, economy, and politics. Once a manufacturing powerhouse, Pennsylvania is transitioning to newer industries while still maintaining a strong energy sector due to its rich oil shale deposits. Agriculture remains the second-largest industry in the state. The population is predominantly white, but there are growing immigrant communities. For instance, Allentown, a city known for its working-class roots, has become majority Hispanic. The state's black population stands at 12%, just below the national average of 13%. Politically, Pennsylvania's two major urban areas, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, lean heavily Democratic, while the vast rural areas tend to support Republicans. The suburbs, which were once solidly conservative, are now shifting towards the left. This creates a unique political landscape where Pennsylvania is often described as 'Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle. ' Despite these contrasting political dynamics, Pennsylvania has maintained a near-even balance in presidential elections. In 2020, President Joe Biden won the state by approximately 80,000 votes, while Trump secured it by about 40,000 votes in his surprising victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. In the past 40 years, only Barack Obama has won Pennsylvania by a significant margin, achieving a double-digit victory in 2008. Current polling indicates that the race between Harris and Trump is extremely close, with Harris holding a lead of less than one percent. Both campaigns are investing heavily in Pennsylvania, spending more on television advertising than in any other swing state. They are also making frequent visits to the state. Harris introduced her running mate, Tim Walz, at a rally in Philadelphia and spent considerable time preparing for her presidential debate in Pittsburgh. Trump held a large rally in Butler, where he narrowly escaped an assassination attempt in July, and visited Biden's hometown of Scranton and Reading. Given the size of the state, both campaigns rely on other politicians and officials to help drum up support. Ed Rendell, a former Democratic governor of Pennsylvania, noted, 'A candidate can't go into a county to talk to 1,200 people. ' This highlights the need for surrogates to reach a larger audience. For Harris, her strategy for victory involves achieving strong numbers in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh while winning the suburbs enough to counterbalance Trump's support in other parts of the state. A crucial aspect of this strategy is winning over moderate voters and some Republicans, including the more than 160,000 who voted for former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in the state's Republican primary earlier this year, long after Trump had secured the party's nomination. Craig Snyder, a former Republican Senate staffer, emphasized that Harris needs to present herself as a centrist candidate, showing that she is not a radical leftist. He noted that the Harris campaign is making a significant effort to reach out to Republican voters, which he believes is unprecedented in recent years. On the other hand, Trump's strategy focuses on maximizing support from the conservative regions of Pennsylvania, including registering and mobilizing voters who may not have participated in previous elections. Trump's campaign officials claim that this grassroots effort is a central focus of their strategy. There are indications that their efforts may be paying off. Although registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans in Pennsylvania, the margin is now just a few hundred thousand, the smallest it has been since the state began releasing these figures in 1998. While it may be challenging to convince college-educated voters in the suburbs, the Trump campaign believes it can also make inroads with traditionally Democratic blue-collar union voters and young black men. Farah Jimenez, a conservative education activist, stated, 'We've seen nationally that Trump has made some real inroads with African American men. ' If Trump can effectively communicate with these voters in Philadelphia, it could provide a foundation for Republican support in the city. The BBC's flagship political debate program will be recorded in Pennsylvania on October 10, featuring a local audience who will quiz a panel of experts, including Anthony Zurcher, a former Trump campaign adviser, and commentator Mehdi Hasan. The discussion will be available for viewers on the BBC website and BBC One. Four years ago, the results in Pennsylvania took several days to be finalized, primarily due to the over two million mail-in ballots cast during the Covid pandemic. Major media outlets did not project Biden as the winner until four days after the election. This year, mail-in voting is expected to be lower, but the state has already received 217,000 completed ballots that cannot be opened and counted until election night. Additionally, over 27,000 military and overseas voter ballots have been distributed by Pennsylvania state officials. If the race is as close as the polls suggest, these votes could play a significant role in the outcome, even if they take longer to arrive and be counted. Craig Snyder remarked, 'I can't imagine that it's not going to take several days after to get a count. ' If the count is very close, it could lead to lawsuits and recounts, so everyone should be prepared for a potentially lengthy process.