Baltic states begin historic switch away from Russian power grid

In a significant and historic move, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have begun the process of disconnecting from Russia's electricity grid, marking a pivotal moment in their energy independence. This transition comes more than thirty years after these nations gained independence from the Soviet Union. The two-day process commenced on a Saturday morning, with residents being advised to prepare for the change by charging their electronic devices, stocking up on food and water, and getting ready for potential disruptions. Authorities cautioned people against using elevators, and in some areas, traffic lights were turned off to ensure safety during the transition. A specially designed countdown clock was set up to mark the final moments before the switch, with a ceremonial event planned in Lithuania's capital, attended by prominent figures such as EU chief Ursula von der Leyen. This transition signifies the end of a long-standing connection to the Russian power grid that has existed since the aftermath of World War Two. The power grid that the Baltic states are leaving is known as the Brell grid, which stands for Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. This grid has been predominantly controlled by Moscow, and it has long been viewed as a vulnerability for these former Soviet republics, which are now members of NATO. Although none of the Baltic states have purchased electricity from Russia since 2022, their reliance on the Brell grid has kept them dependent on Moscow for energy supply. Following the disconnection on Saturday morning, the three countries will conduct frequency tests to ensure a smooth integration into the European grid via Poland on Sunday. Lithuania's Energy Minister, Zygimantas Vaiciunas, emphasized that this move removes Russia's ability to use the electricity system as a means of geopolitical leverage. Experts, including Professor David Smith from the Baltic Research Unit at the University of Glasgow, noted that this transition is the culmination of efforts spanning over a decade to reduce energy dependence on Russia. The Baltic states share a lengthy border with Russia, and tensions have escalated since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In the past 18 months, there have been numerous incidents of suspected sabotage involving electricity cables and pipelines in the Baltic Sea, raising concerns that Moscow may retaliate against the Baltic states for their shift towards EU energy independence. At least eleven undersea cables have been damaged during this period, with one recent incident occurring in the Gulf of Finland. While NATO has not directly accused Russia of these actions, they have initiated a new patrol mission in the region called Baltic Sentry. Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs stated that they cannot rule out the possibility of provocations, and both he and Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina acknowledged the risks involved but assured that contingency plans are in place. Additionally, there are concerns about potential cyber-attacks during this transition period. A spokesperson from NATO's Energy Security Centre of Excellence indicated that frequent emergency operation tests have been conducted to prepare for possible targeted attacks on the energy system. Gert Auvaart, the head of Estonia's Cybersecurity Centre, warned that Russia may attempt to exploit this period to create uncertainty, but he expressed confidence that Estonia is well-prepared for even the worst-case scenarios. He noted that since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there has been a surge in cyber-attacks against Estonia, ranging from hacktivist-driven Distributed Denial-of-Service attacks to more sophisticated operations targeting government agencies and businesses. The Baltic states are also on high alert for disinformation campaigns related to their decision to withdraw from the Brell grid. Shortly after notifying Russia of their plans to disconnect in August 2024, false warnings about supply failures and soaring prices began circulating on social media. This transition represents a crucial step for the Baltic states as they strive for greater energy independence and security in the face of ongoing geopolitical challenges.