Has China turned away from Russia in joint race to the moon?

The title of our discussion is 'Has China distanced itself from Russia in their joint venture to the moon? ' Russia's lunar missions have been conspicuously absent from China's latest blueprint for the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). This project was jointly initiated by both countries with the aim of constructing a base near the lunar south pole. Previously, it was proposed that China and Russia would each dispatch half a dozen spacecraft to complete the moon base. However, the missions to be conducted by Russia were missing from the presentation given by a senior Chinese space scientist at the International Astronautical Congress in Baku, Azerbaijan. Yu Dengyun, the deputy chief designer of China's lunar exploration programme, spoke about the goals and construction strategy of the ILRS. However, the mission profile he presented only included future Chinese launches. All partner missions, which were previously presented alongside the Chinese ones, were omitted. These include the Luna-25, which crashed into the lunar surface in August during a manoeuvre to lower the spacecraft's orbit in preparation for landing. There were also three follow-up launches – the Luna 26 to 28 – planned by the Russian space agency Roscosmos for 2027 to 2030. Missions that were previously expected to launch using Russia's Angara heavy-lift rockets for the main construction phase of the ILRS were also absent from Yu's presentation. It is plausible that the unexpected failure of Luna-25 disrupted Russia's planned schedule, and its absence from the blueprint was only temporary. However, some space observers have suggested that it would not be surprising if China decided to distance itself from Russia following its poor performance in space in recent years. Jonathan McDowell, a space programme historian and astronomer at Harvard University, stated that Luna-25 is just the latest embarrassment for the Russian space industry. He also mentioned the repeated coolant leaks on the Soyuz and Progress ships last year. Roscosmos attributed the leaks to micrometeoroid strikes, but some observers suspect manufacturing defects in the spacecraft were to blame. McDowell suggested that the declining reputation of Russian space combined with China's increased confidence in its domestic space industry make a Russian connection less appealing, and less necessary. Namrata Goswami, an independent space policy scholar based in the US state of Alabama, said the absence of the Russian missions from Yu's presentation should not be interpreted as a direct signal from China that the space partnership had become uncertain. She suggested that the subtle change in Yu's slide could be more of a strategic move by China to get partner nations to sign up for the ILRS. Mention of the Luna-25 to 28 on the slide might deter nations from signing on to the ILRS because of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, she said, referring to Russia's continuing military assault on the former Soviet state following its invasion in February last year. In August, a Chinese delegation led by Wu Weiren, chief designer of China's deep space exploration programme, was invited to attend the launch event of Luna-25 in Russia's far east. In a statement posted on social media on Tuesday, Roscosmos said the most likely cause of the Luna-25 crash was the abnormal functioning of the computer on board the spacecraft. It was Russia's first moon mission since Luna-24 in 1976, during the Soviet era.