A year after mutiny, Kremlin controls Wagner remnants

A year after the Wagner Group's mutiny against President Vladimir Putin's government, Russia has effectively dismantled and replaced the mercenary group. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the late leader of Wagner, led his forces into the Russian city of Rostov on June 23, 2023, facing virtually no resistance. Prigozhin called this the 'march for justice,' but it ended abruptly the next day when he called off the advance. Two months later, Prigozhin's plane crashed, throwing the group's future into uncertainty. Dr. Sorcha MacLeod, a member of the UN's working group on mercenaries, said that former Wagner troops have fragmented across the Russian state. She noted that while Wagner may not exist in its previous form, versions of it continue to operate. She added that Wagner was geopolitically and economically important to Russia, so it was never going to disappear entirely. For years, Wagner had been a valuable tool for Russian operations in Africa and Syria. However, it was in Ukraine, as Moscow's conventional forces struggled, that Wagner became more visible. Throughout late 2022 and early 2023, Wagner was crucial to Russia's few battlefield victories. The group, largely composed of ex-prisoners, managed to take the eastern city of Soledar and became entrenched in intense fighting in Bakhmut. At its peak, Wagner had around 50,000 mercenaries in Ukraine. Now, experts say Wagner's operations in Ukraine have been taken over by other Russian state and paramilitary units. One former Wagner commander told BBC Russian that the mercenaries were ordered to join the Ministry of Defence or leave. UK intelligence officials have suggested that some of Wagner's infantry units have been absorbed by the Rosgvardia, or National Guard. This unit, established in 2016, is controlled by Putin's former bodyguard, Viktor Zolotov. The UK Ministry of Defence said that elements of Wagner started coming under the National Guard's control in October 2023. These troops, referred to as 'volunteer formations,' were to be deployed to Ukraine on six-month contracts and to Africa on nine-month contracts. Anton Yelizarov, a long-term Wagner operator, confirmed this integration in a video posted to a Wagner-linked Telegram channel. He said that Wagner troops would 'work for the good of Russia' and join National Guard units in a new formation. UK officials said that the incorporation of former Wagner assault detachments into Rosgvardia's Volunteer Corps likely indicated that Wagner had been successfully subordinated into Rosgvardia, increasing Russian state control over the group. Other former Wagner forces have signed up to fight with Ramzan Kadyrov's Akhmat forces in Chechnya, according to a recent BBC Russian investigation. A tangible example of Wagner's decline came when its logo was reportedly removed from a building in St. Petersburg. Only in the Central African Republic (CAR) is Wagner still operating in any shadow of its former shape, allegedly controlled by Prigozhin's son Pavel. In the days following the mutiny, Prigozhin was said to have made a deal with Putin to focus Wagner's operations in Africa. After his death, Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov reportedly toured African capitals, assuring officials that Wagner's services would continue. The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) observed that Russia's focus on Africa has strengthened since Prigozhin's death. In February, the BBC obtained documents revealing that a Russian 'expeditionary group,' nicknamed the Africa Corps, was offering services in exchange for access to resources. This group is commanded by former GRU General Andrey Averyanov, who previously oversaw secretive operations. Experts told the BBC that the Africa Corps has effectively replaced Wagner in West Africa. On Telegram, the unit boasted of offering recruits salaries and service under experienced commanders. In January, it announced its first deployment of 100 troops to Burkina Faso, with another 100 arriving in Niger in April. Ruslan Trad, a security analyst, told the BBC that Wagner has become the Africa Corps and now serves military intelligence and the Ministry of Defence. In Africa, these soldiers are doing similar work, such as guarding trade routes and securing resources. The PISM noted that the Africa Corps is intended to replace Western influence in Africa. BBC Russian reported that only in the CAR is Wagner still operating in any shadow of its former shape. A source told BBC Russian that Moscow has allowed Prigozhin's son to continue his father's work in Africa. There is a makeshift memorial to Wagner in Moscow, but the anniversary of the group's uprising passed largely without incident. Dan Storyev of the OVD-Info monitoring group told the BBC that Prigozhin's legacy mostly lies with those aligned with the Kremlin. He noted that the Wagner mutiny did not have much grassroots support because it lacked a genuine anti-war message. There are people who organize protests in Russia, but they focus on anti-war activism and have nothing to do with Prigozhin.