Latest Taiwan election survey is more bad news for Tsai Ing-wen’s ruling DPP

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan is facing a significant challenge. The party's presidential front runner, William Lai Ching-te, has seen his support fall below 30% for the first time in seven months. This was revealed in a recent survey conducted by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation. The survey also indicated that President Tsai Ing-wen's approval rating is on a downward trend, which is a cause for concern for the DPP. The party is attempting to break a long-standing political trend in Taiwan where the ruling party hands over power after two four-year presidential terms. However, Tsai's approval rating has slipped to 36. 5% from 38. 4% in the previous month, marking her worst polling since April 2019. The survey also found that disapproval of Tsai has risen to 53%, the highest level since April 2019. Michael You Ying-lung, the head of the polling agency, stated that these results typically indicate strong public dissatisfaction with governance. He further noted that Tsai's declining popularity could potentially harm the DPP's prospects in the upcoming elections. The survey also inquired about the public's support for the DPP's continued governance beyond 2024. A majority of respondents, 53. 5%, expressed opposition to the DPP maintaining control of the government, compared to 34. 7% who wished for the party to remain in power. This suggests that the Taiwanese society is anticipating a fourth transfer of government. Despite these challenges, William Lai remains the election front runner, although his lead continues to diminish. The DPP's Chen Shui-bian succeeded former Kuomintang (KMT) leader Lee Teng-hui as the island's president in 2000 and was re-elected for a second term in 2004. This was followed by the KMT's return to power with Ma Ying-jeou, who also served two terms. Tsai's second term will conclude in May 2024. Wang Kung-yu, head of the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society, stated that the public is discontented with the unchecked power of the majority DPP government. This dissatisfaction is reflected in the survey results, with 59% of respondents opposing the DPP's continued dominance of both the government and the legislature in 2024, even if the DPP wins the presidential election. Meanwhile, support for DPP presidential candidate Lai has dropped to 29. 7%, the lowest since he expressed his intention to run for the presidency. However, he still remains the front runner, followed by Ko Wen-je, leader of the smaller opposition Taiwan People's Party, and New Taipei Mayor and KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih.