Harris could win because…

As the election for the White House approaches, the competition between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is incredibly tight. With only one day remaining until voters head to the polls, both candidates find themselves nearly neck and neck in the national polls, as well as in crucial battleground states. The polling numbers are so close that either candidate could potentially gain a slight advantage, which could be enough to secure a comfortable victory. There are compelling arguments for why each candidate might have the upper hand when it comes to rallying support from voters in key areas and ensuring that their supporters actually turn out to vote. One particularly intriguing aspect of this election is the possibility of a former president being re-elected after having lost an election, a feat that has not occurred in 130 years. One of the factors that could work in Trump's favor is that he is not currently in power. The economy remains the top concern for voters, and while the unemployment rate is low and the stock market is performing well, many Americans report feeling the pinch of rising prices on a daily basis. Inflation has reached levels not seen since the 1970s, largely as a result of the pandemic, which gives Trump the opportunity to pose the question, 'Are you better off now than you were four years ago? ' In the 2024 election, voters around the world have frequently opted to remove the party in power, especially when faced with high post-Covid living costs. In the United States, there is a palpable desire for change, with only a quarter of Americans expressing satisfaction with the current direction of the country, and two-thirds holding a pessimistic view of the economy. While Harris has attempted to position herself as the candidate of change, her role as vice president has made it challenging for her to distance herself from the unpopular policies of President Biden. Another reason Trump may have an edge is his apparent resilience in the face of negative news. Despite the fallout from the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot, a series of legal challenges, and an unprecedented criminal conviction, Trump's support has remained steady throughout the year, consistently hovering at 40% or above. While Democrats and some conservative critics label him as unfit for office, a significant portion of Republicans resonate with Trump's narrative of being a victim of a political witch-hunt. With both sides firmly entrenched in their positions, Trump only needs to sway a small fraction of undecided voters who do not have a fixed opinion of him. Immigration is another critical issue that often sways elections, and it appears to resonate with voters this time around. While Democrats may hope that abortion rights will be the defining issue, Trump is banking on immigration to rally support. Following a surge in encounters at the southern border under Biden's administration, polls indicate that voters trust Trump more on immigration matters, and he is performing significantly better with Latino voters compared to previous elections. Furthermore, Trump's appeal to voters who feel overlooked and marginalized has reshaped the political landscape in the United States, transforming traditional Democratic strongholds, such as union workers, into Republican supporters. If Trump can drive higher turnout in rural and suburban areas of swing states, it could counterbalance any losses he may face among moderate, college-educated Republicans. On the flip side, Harris has her own set of advantages. One of her most significant strengths is that she is not Trump. Despite Trump's advantages, he remains a deeply polarizing figure. In the 2020 election, he garnered a record number of votes for a Republican candidate but ultimately lost because seven million more Americans chose to support Biden. This time around, Harris is emphasizing the fear factor associated with a potential Trump return, labeling him a 'fascist' and a threat to democracy while promising to move beyond 'drama and conflict. ' A recent poll indicated that four out of five Americans feel the country is spiraling out of control, and Harris hopes that moderate Republicans and independents will view her as a candidate who can provide stability. Additionally, Harris is not Biden. When Biden withdrew from the race, the Democratic Party quickly united behind Harris in their shared goal of defeating Trump. She has swiftly delivered a forward-looking message that has energized the party's base. While Republicans have attempted to link her to Biden's unpopular policies, Harris has managed to render some of their attacks ineffective. One of the most significant concerns voters have expressed is about age, and now it is Trump who is vying to become the oldest person to win the White House. Harris has also been a strong advocate for women's rights, particularly in light of the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which eliminated the constitutional right to an abortion. Voters who prioritize protecting abortion rights overwhelmingly support Harris, and past elections have demonstrated that this issue can significantly influence voter turnout. In the upcoming election, ten states, including the crucial swing state of Arizona, will have ballot initiatives addressing abortion regulations, which could further boost turnout in Harris's favor. Moreover, her historic bid to become the first female president may strengthen her appeal among women voters. Harris's supporters are also more likely to show up at the polls. The demographics she is polling well with, such as college-educated individuals and older voters, tend to have higher turnout rates. In contrast, Trump has made gains among groups with lower turnout rates, such as young men and those without college degrees. A key question for the election is whether these groups will make it to the polls this time around. Lastly, Harris has raised and spent more money on her campaign than Trump. American elections are notoriously expensive, and the 2024 election is projected to be the most costly in history. Harris has raised more funds since becoming the candidate in July than Trump has raised in the entire period since January 2023. Additionally, her campaign has spent nearly twice as much on advertising, which could play a crucial role in this razor-thin race.