China population: province bucks trend with surveyed interest in bigger families

In Guangdong province, a significant manufacturing hub in China, families are showing a growing interest in having more than one child. This is a positive sign amidst concerns about China's deepening demographic crisis and a normalising population decline. A survey conducted by the Guangdong Academy of Population Development, a government think tank, revealed that over half of the respondents expressed a desire to have two children, while an additional 6. 5 per cent indicated they wanted to have three or more. These results were publicised recently. A majority of the respondents from five cities expressed a desire to have at least one child. However, on a nationwide scale, the number and proportion of second-born children decreased in 2022, suggesting a diminishing effect of policies designed to encourage higher birth rates. Last year, the number of babies born as second or subsequent children in Chinese families accounted for 53. 9 per cent of all newborns, a decrease from 55. 9 per cent in 2021. The total number of second or subsequent children also declined, contributing to China's first population decrease in six decades as deaths outnumbered births. The total population dropped by 850,000 to 1. 4118 billion in 2022, down from 1. 4126 billion a year earlier. China also recorded the lowest birth count in its modern history with 9. 56 million, the first time the figure dipped below 10 million. Demographers have predicted that births could further drop to between 7 million and 8 million this year, setting a record low and further complicating the country's demographic outlook. A series of pronatalist policies have been implemented at local and central levels, but experts have conceded that immediate effects are unlikely and China must adapt to the 'new normal'. Guangdong is the wealthiest and the most populous province in the country, and last year it experienced its first population decline in more than four decades. The southern province reported that its resident population, people living in the region for more than six months, fell by 272,000 from a year earlier to 126. 57 million. However, it did record 1. 05 million newborns in 2022, making it the only province to log more than 1 million births. According to the survey, younger respondents in Guangdong showed greater reluctance to start a family. More than 30 per cent of respondents born after 2000 said they had no intention of having children. Of those without procreation plans, more than 70 per cent cited the financial cost as the main reason. Others mentioned the attendant workload, lack of a caretaker, or hindrances to careers as contributing factors. Each was mentioned by about 40 per cent of those surveyed. The results may be scrutinised as plans are made to arrest the decline. Local experts have proposed policies to reduce the financial burden on expanding families, including personal income tax cuts and affordable day care.