How unusual is this UK heat and is climate change to blame?

The United Kingdom is currently experiencing another period of unusually high temperatures, with forecasts predicting that some areas in south-east England could reach up to 34 degrees Celsius before the end of June. This heatwave is being caused by a weather pattern known as a heat dome, where high pressure gets stuck over Europe and traps warm air. Climate scientists agree that climate change is making these heatwaves more intense and more frequent. While some people might think these temperatures are just typical for summer, it is actually quite rare for the UK to see temperatures in the mid-thirties, especially in June, which is usually the coolest summer month.

Looking at the data, in the second half of the 20th century, only about one in ten years saw temperatures reach 35 degrees or higher. However, this has changed significantly in recent years. Between 2015 and 2024, half of the years had days where the temperature hit 35 degrees or more. The hottest June days on record were in 1957 and 1976, both reaching 35. 6 degrees. More recently, June 2017 saw a high of 34. 5 degrees, and June 2019 reached 34 degrees. Forecasts suggest that 2025 could come close to these records. Over the last decade, days with temperatures above 32 degrees have become more than three times as common compared to the period from 1961 to 1990.

The main reason for these changes is climate change. As people burn fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas, and cut down forests, greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere. These gases trap heat and warm the planet. Even a small increase in the Earth's average temperature can make extreme heat events much more likely. Scientists say that this current heatwave is definitely hotter than it would have been without climate change. There is also some evidence that warming in the Arctic is affecting the jet stream, which could make heat domes more likely, although this is still being studied.

The UK's infrastructure is not well prepared for such high temperatures. Roads, railways, hospitals, and care homes are often not designed to handle extreme heat. The Climate Change Committee, which advises the government, has warned that more homes are likely to be at risk of overheating in the future. Vulnerable groups, such as older people, young children, and pregnant women, are especially at risk during heatwaves. Air conditioning and other cooling systems are becoming more important to protect health and well-being. Experts warn that if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, heatwaves will continue to get worse, and the UK could see even higher temperatures in the future.