Paul Adams: Why the Gaza ceasefire is under growing strain

Paul Adams, a diplomatic correspondent for the BBC, has been closely following the ongoing situation in Gaza. Recently, Hamas, the group that governs Gaza, released several hostages, including Eli Sharabi, on February 8. This event took place in Deir el-Balah, where Hamas fighters escorted Eli to a stage and handed him over to a Red Cross team. However, there are growing concerns about why Hamas is delaying the release of more hostages, especially with the next group scheduled to be released soon. In an official statement shared on Telegram, Hamas referred to their announcement as a 'warning' to Israel, indicating that they are giving mediators enough time to pressure Israel into fulfilling its obligations. They also mentioned that the 'door remains open' for the next scheduled releases to proceed as planned. This suggests that Hamas is trying to create space for negotiations to resolve the current impasse. But what exactly is this impasse? Hamas has raised several complaints, including the delay in returning displaced people, ongoing gunfire directed at them, and the failure to allow certain types of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Other Palestinian officials, who are not affiliated with Hamas, have pointed out Israel's reluctance to permit caravans into Gaza to provide temporary housing for the many Palestinians who have lost their homes. At a time when the Israeli government is openly discussing ways to encourage civilians to leave Gaza, the lack of permits for much-needed temporary accommodations is likely to heighten Palestinian fears of being expelled from their land. These fears are further intensified by comments from Donald Trump, the former president of the United States. What started as a seemingly casual suggestion that most Palestinians should leave while Gaza is being rebuilt has escalated into a demand that all Palestinians should vacate the area, with Trump proposing that the US take control of Gaza. As Trump continues to reinforce his controversial stance, Hamas may be questioning the value of continuing the ceasefire talks. They are likely pondering the purpose of these discussions. If Trump is serious about his demands, the Palestinians understand that it would fall upon Israel to ensure that Gaza is emptied of civilians. This would likely require more than just denying shelter; it could necessitate the use of force. Trump has also stated that if all hostages held in Gaza are not returned by Saturday, he will suggest canceling the ceasefire, warning that 'all hell' will break loose. However, he clarified that he was speaking for himself and that 'Israel can override it. ' The situation is tense, and people in both Israel and Gaza are reacting to the postponement of the hostage release. Faced with the potential return of war, Hamas may be questioning what incentive they have to release the remaining hostages. For the families and friends of the hostages, the current deadlock and Trump's loud interventions are causing fresh anxiety. Dudi Zalmanovich, whose wife's nephew, Omer Shem Tov, is still being held by Hamas, expressed his concerns, stating, 'Each of these statements or announcements, of course, make Hamas more stubborn. ' He wishes that Trump would take a less proactive approach. Israel, on its part, harbors suspicions regarding Hamas's threatened delay. The recent release of visibly emaciated hostages has raised fears that Hamas may not want the world to see others in even worse conditions. Coupled with the images of well-armed Hamas fighters parading in broad daylight and warnings from former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the group has recruited as many soldiers as it has lost during the conflict, not all Israelis are convinced that the ceasefire can or should endure. While it is still too early to determine whether this carefully negotiated process is on the verge of collapse, as many have predicted, it is undoubtedly under increasing strain.