Musk v Ambani: Billionaires battle over India's satellite internet

The competition between two of the wealthiest individuals in the world, Elon Musk and Mukesh Ambani, is heating up as they both aim to dominate the satellite internet market in India. Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, has established a significant presence in the satellite internet sector through his company Starlink, which boasts an impressive fleet of 6,419 satellites currently in orbit and has garnered four million subscribers across 100 countries. Recently, the Indian government made a pivotal decision to allocate satellite spectrum for broadband services administratively rather than through an auction process, a move that has intensified the rivalry between Musk and Ambani. Musk has previously criticized the auction model that Ambani supports, arguing that it may not be the best approach for fostering competition in the market. Satellite broadband is particularly advantageous as it provides internet access to remote and rural areas where traditional services, such as DSL or cable, are often unavailable. This capability is crucial in bridging the digital divide, ensuring that underserved communities can access the internet. As of now, the Indian telecom regulator has yet to announce the pricing for the satellite spectrum, and commercial satellite internet services have not yet commenced. However, projections from credit rating agency ICRA suggest that the number of satellite internet subscribers in India could reach two million by 2025. The market is highly competitive, with several key players vying for dominance, but Ambani's Reliance Jio currently leads the pack. Having invested billions in airwave auctions to secure a stronghold in the telecom sector, Jio has formed a partnership with SES Astra, a prominent satellite operator based in Luxembourg. Unlike Musk's Starlink, which utilizes low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites positioned between 160 and 1,000 kilometers from the Earth's surface for faster service, SES operates medium-Earth orbit (MEO) satellites at a higher altitude, offering a more cost-effective solution. Ground receivers capture satellite signals and convert them into internet data. Musk's Starlink has faced regulatory hurdles that have delayed its entry into the Indian market. If Starlink successfully launches its services in India, it could bolster Prime Minister Narendra Modi's efforts to attract foreign investment and enhance the government's pro-business image, countering claims that its policies favor established Indian businessmen like Ambani. Ambani has also invested heavily in airwave auctions to solidify his position in India's telecom sector. While auctions have proven lucrative for Reliance Jio in the past, the Indian government defends its decision to allocate satellite spectrum administratively this time, asserting that it aligns with international norms. Typically, satellite spectrum is not allocated through auctions due to the high costs involved, which could deter investment in the business. Gareth Owen, a technology analyst at Counterpoint Research, explains that administrative allocation would ensure fair distribution of spectrum among qualified players, potentially allowing Starlink to enter the competition. However, Ambani's Reliance argues that an auction is necessary to maintain fair competition, given the lack of clear legal provisions in India regarding how satellite broadband services can be offered directly to consumers. In letters sent to the telecom regulator earlier in October, Reliance has consistently urged the creation of a level playing field between satellite-based and terrestrial access services. The company has also pointed out that recent advancements in satellite technologies have blurred the lines between satellite and terrestrial networks, indicating that satellite services are no longer limited to areas without terrestrial options. One letter emphasized that spectrum assignment is typically conducted through auctions under India's telecom laws, with administrative allocation permitted only in cases of public interest or technical and economic reasons that prevent auctions. Musk has highlighted that the spectrum was previously designated by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) as shared spectrum for satellites. The ITU, a United Nations agency responsible for digital technology regulations, sets global standards, and India is a member and signatory. When news broke that Ambani was reconsidering his stance, Musk responded on social media, stating, 'I will call [Mr Ambani] and ask if it would not be too much trouble to allow Starlink to compete to provide internet services to the people of India. ' Ambani's resistance to the administrative pricing method may stem from a desire to maintain a strategic advantage, as suggested by Owen. The billionaire could be prepared to outbid Musk in an auction, potentially excluding Starlink from the Indian market. Musk's Starlink is not the only company facing challenges in this competitive landscape. Sunil Mittal, chairman of Bharti Airtel, has also expressed support for the auction route, stating that companies aiming to serve urban, high-end customers should be required to compete fairly. Mittal, along with Ambani, controls a significant portion of India's telecom market, accounting for 80% of the industry. This resistance to the administrative allocation method is viewed as a defensive strategy aimed at raising costs for international players perceived as long-term threats. While satellite technologies may not pose immediate competition, they are advancing rapidly, and Indian telecom companies with substantial terrestrial businesses fear that satellites could soon become more competitive, challenging their dominance. The stakes are high, as nearly 40% of India's 1. 4 billion people still lack internet access, with rural areas making up a significant portion of this statistic. In comparison, China boasts approximately 1. 09 billion internet users, which is nearly 340 million more than India's total. India's internet adoption rate remains below the global average of 66. 2%, but recent studies indicate that the country is closing the gap. If satellite broadband can be priced appropriately, it has the potential to bridge this gap and even support the Internet of Things (IoT), a network that connects everyday objects to the internet, allowing them to communicate with one another. Pricing will be a critical factor in India, where mobile data is among the cheapest in the world. Experts predict that a price war with Indian operators is inevitable, and Musk's deep pockets could enable him to offer free services in certain areas to establish a foothold in the domestic market. Starlink has already reduced prices in countries like Kenya and South Africa. However, challenges remain, as a 2023 report from EY-Parthenon noted that Starlink's higher costs—nearly ten times those of major Indian broadband providers—could hinder its ability to compete without government subsidies. The need for more LEO satellites, like those operated by Starlink, to achieve global coverage increases launch and maintenance costs. Some concerns raised by Indian operators may be unfounded, as businesses are unlikely to switch entirely to satellite services unless terrestrial options are unavailable. Terrestrial networks will generally remain less expensive than satellite services, except in sparsely populated regions. While Musk may have a first-mover advantage, the development of satellite markets is often slow. The battle between Musk and Ambani for control of the satellite internet market in India has truly begun, and it will be fascinating to observe how this competition unfolds in the coming months.