Hong Kong’s supply of new homes hits record high amid buyer reluctance

Hong Kong's supply of new private homes has reached a record high of 107,000 units, according to a government estimate. This surge is attributed to the reluctance of potential buyers due to high interest rates. The Housing Bureau reported that the number of first-hand private residential units that could be available in the next three to four years has increased by 2,000 since the end of September. This is a significant increase from the previous estimate of 105,000 units at the end of June.

The potential supply has seen an annual increase of 12,000 units, largely due to the economic climate and the high cost of borrowing. Market sentiment has been subdued due to interest rate hikes and increases in borrowing costs. The market was also in anticipation of relaxation on property curbs before the policy address by Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu, which resulted in a slowdown in new home sales. In the third quarter, developers completed 2,500 units, which is 3. 1 times the total in the second quarter, bringing the total for the first nine months to 10,100 units.

However, analysts have emphasized that the government's estimate merely indicates potential supply over the next few years. The property market is widely recognized to have entered a downward cycle, which may prevent the potential supply from being converted into actual completion in the near future. The total of 10,100 units completed in the first three quarters of 2023 is less than half of the full-year forecast of 19,953 units issued in April by the Rating and Valuation Department. This indicates a slowdown in the pace of residential construction. Despite the uncertainty, developers commenced construction on about 3,200 private residential units in the third quarter, showing their willingness to invest in building.