US goes big with first interest rate cut in four years

In a significant move, the US central bank has decided to lower interest rates for the first time in over four years, marking a notable shift in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has reduced the target for its key lending rate by 0. 5 percentage points, bringing it down to a range of 4. 75% to 5%. Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, described this decision as 'strong' and emphasized that it was necessary due to easing price rises and growing concerns about the job market. This change is expected to provide relief to borrowers across the United States, who have been grappling with the highest interest rates seen in more than two decades. Just a week prior to this announcement, many analysts had not anticipated such a substantial cut, and the Federal Reserve's forecasts indicate that rates could potentially decrease by another half percentage point by the end of the year. Mr. Powell stated that the aggressive action taken on Wednesday was aimed at ensuring that the high borrowing costs, which were implemented to combat inflation, do not inadvertently harm the US economy. He remarked, 'The labor market is in a strong place - we want to keep it there,' highlighting the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining a healthy job market while navigating economic challenges. The Federal Reserve's decision follows similar cuts made by other central banks around the world, including those in Europe, the UK, and Canada, making this move widely anticipated. However, leading up to the meeting, there was a degree of uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the cut that officials would approve. Isaac Stell, an investment manager at Wealth Club, a UK investment service, noted, 'Despite there being no significant economic woes on the radar, policymakers have decided to get ahead of the curve. ' This statement reflects the cautious approach taken by the Federal Reserve in light of potential economic risks. The Federal Reserve had previously raised interest rates sharply starting in 2022, with the intention of cooling the economy and stabilizing prices, which had been surging at the fastest pace since the 1980s. These rate hikes resulted in increased costs for mortgages, car loans, and other forms of debt, aimed at reducing spending and alleviating price pressures. However, as inflation has begun to subside, officials have grown increasingly concerned about the potential risks to the broader economy posed by high interest rates. The unemployment rate in the US has risen to 4. 2% from 3. 7% at the beginning of the year, indicating a slowdown in hiring. Projections released after the meeting revealed that officials now anticipate inflation to decline more rapidly and unemployment to rise higher than previously expected. The jobless rate is projected to reach 4. 4% by the end of 2024. Mr. Powell acknowledged that the job market had been too robust last year and welcomed some cooling, but he denied that the Federal Reserve was worried about the onset of a serious economic downturn. He stated, 'I do not see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood. of a downturn is elevated. ' Recent data from the Commerce Department indicates that the US economy grew at an annual rate of 3% over the three months leading up to June. Retail spending has also shown resilience, contributing to the overall economic stability. Inflation, meanwhile, dropped to 2. 5% in August, inching closer to the Federal Reserve's target of 2% for the fifth consecutive month. Notably, one Federal Reserve governor, Michelle Bowman, voted against the rate cut, marking the first dissent since 2005. Historically, the Federal Reserve has implemented interest rate cuts of 0. 5 percentage points during times of crisis, such as the onset of the coronavirus pandemic or the 2008 financial crisis. However, economist Randall Kroszner, a professor at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business and a former governor of the Federal Reserve, emphasized that Wednesday's announcement was significant not solely because of the size of the cut but because it signals the beginning of a new era of lower borrowing costs. He remarked, 'One quarter of a percentage point one way or another - that's not going to break the US economy. ' The focus, he noted, should be on the Federal Reserve's trajectory for the remainder of the year and beyond. The Federal Reserve had maintained its key rate, which it charges banks to borrow, steady since July 2023. Forecasts released by the Federal Reserve indicate that officials expect the key lending rate to decrease to approximately 4. 4% by the end of the year and 3. 4% by the end of 2025, significantly lower than many had predicted just a few months ago. Jennifer Heasley, the owner of Sweet Mama's Mambo Sauce in Pennsylvania, expressed her relief regarding the rate cut. She shared that her monthly payments have increased significantly due to rising interest rates, stating, 'If you're buying a piece of equipment for $1,500 and you're putting that on a credit card - if you're not paying that off, you're accruing quite a bit of interest. ' For her, this change is crucial. Following the announcement, the stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq initially rising but ultimately ending the day slightly lower.