How Canada's Conservatives threw away a 27-point lead to lose again

In a surprising turn of events during the recent Canadian election, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre faced a significant defeat, losing his own seat. This shocking outcome left many Conservative supporters and candidates questioning how such a dramatic shift occurred. The Conservatives had previously held a commanding 27-point lead in opinion polls, but they ultimately lost the election for the fourth consecutive time. Despite securing nearly 42% of the popular vote, the highest percentage since the party's inception in 2003, Poilievre was voted out of the seat he had occupied for the past two decades. Shakir Chambers, a Conservative strategist, expressed the disappointment felt within the party, stating, 'Nobody's happy about that. ' As the party grapples with this unexpected loss, they are now tasked with determining how to effectively function as the Official Opposition without their leader present in the House of Commons. In response to this situation, Poilievre announced his intention to run in a special election in Alberta, aiming to reclaim a seat in Parliament. This special election was prompted by the resignation of Conservative MP-elect Damien Kurek, who voluntarily stepped down to allow Poilievre to return, describing the campaign as 'remarkable. ' Poilievre, who has roots in Alberta, is expected to have a strong chance of winning in this Conservative stronghold. However, a pressing question remains: does he still have the support of his party to continue as leader? Chambers believes the answer is affirmative, stating, 'Pierre has a lot of support in the caucus. ' Notably, several prominent Conservatives, including former party leader Andrew Scheer, have publicly endorsed Poilievre, urging him to remain in his position to ensure the party's success in future elections. On the other hand, some party members are pointing fingers at where things went wrong. Jamil Jivani, who successfully secured his own seat in a Toronto suburb, criticized Ontario leader Doug Ford for allegedly betraying the conservative movement and contributing to the party's electoral defeat. Although the federal and provincial Conservative parties are legally distinct entities, they share similar ideological beliefs, and Ford's leadership of Ontario's Progressive Conservative Party has drawn scrutiny. Jivani accused Ford of distracting from the federal campaign and positioning himself as a political genius. In contrast, Chambers emphasized that Poilievre must also confront the areas where the party fell short. The federal Conservatives have placed blame on Ford for their loss, as Poilievre's combative political style has not resonated well with the general Canadian public. Furthermore, he has struggled to secure the support of influential Conservative leaders in provinces like Ontario, where Ford did not actively campaign for him despite his recent provincial election victory. Ford remarked, 'Last time I checked, Pierre Poilievre never came out in our election,' highlighting the disconnect between the two leaders. Another Conservative premier, Tim Houston from Nova Scotia, echoed the sentiment that the federal party needs to engage in some serious self-reflection following their defeat. He stated, 'I think the Conservative Party of Canada was very good at pushing people away, not so good at pulling people in. ' However, not all provincial leaders remained on the sidelines. Poilievre received endorsements from Alberta's Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan's Scott Moe, both of whom are prominent figures in the western Conservative movement. Kory Teneycke, Ford's campaign manager, who had publicly criticized Poilievre's campaign during the election, dismissed the idea that Ford's lack of endorsement was a significant factor in the election outcome. He argued that the more pressing issue was Poilievre's inability to unite Conservative voters across the country. Teneycke explained that the definition of a Conservative can vary greatly in different regions of Canada, and while Poilievre's populist rhetoric resonated with some in the west, it alienated others in the east. He noted, 'There was a lot of Trump mimicry in terms of how they presented the campaign,' suggesting that this approach did not sit well with many Canadians. Teneycke believes that Poilievre's Conservatives will need to engage in some serious soul-searching to develop a strategy for building a coalition of right-leaning voters in a country as diverse as Canada. When asked what it would take to mend the rift within the party, Ford simply replied, 'All they have to do is make a phone call.