Ukraine's hopes and challenges after long wait for F-16s

In Kyiv, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has been eagerly awaiting the arrival of F-16 fighter jets for over a year and a half. These advanced aircraft are crucial for Ukraine as they will significantly enhance the country's ability to defend itself against Russia's aerial attacks. The first batch of F-16s is finally set to arrive from NATO member countries, marking a significant milestone in Ukraine's military efforts. President Zelensky has emphasized that these jets are essential for 'unblocking the skies' and enabling Ukrainians to effectively counter Russian air superiority. However, there are growing concerns that Russian forces are preparing to target these new jets as soon as they land. In July, several Ukrainian military airfields were attacked, including those in Myrhorod and Kryvyi Rih, with Russia claiming to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian fighter jets and critical air defense systems. Ukrainian officials, however, have countered these claims, suggesting that the destroyed aircraft were merely decoys designed to mislead Russian forces. This situation has raised alarm among Ukraine's allies and many citizens, who fear that the F-16s may not have adequate protection upon their arrival. Until now, the Ukrainian air force has relied on a strategy known as 'dispersed operations' to safeguard its aircraft. This approach involves frequently moving planes around to minimize the risk of being targeted during Russian airstrikes. According to Professor Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, this strategy has been somewhat effective, as it forces Russia to strike at empty areas rather than hitting actual aircraft. However, with the introduction of the F-16s, Ukraine may need to adapt its tactics to ensure the safety of these valuable assets. The F-16s require well-maintained runways free of debris to operate effectively, and any improvements made to existing airfields will likely be visible to Russian surveillance. Russia has been utilizing advanced drones to monitor Ukrainian air bases, which complicates Ukraine's ability to conceal its military assets. These drones can capture real-time images and evade detection, allowing Russia to assess the effectiveness of its missile strikes. As of now, there is no confirmation that the F-16s have arrived in Ukraine, but experts believe that Russian forces are actively probing Ukrainian airfields in anticipation of their arrival. Recently, U. S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that the transfer of F-16s from Denmark and the Netherlands is already underway. NATO countries have pledged to send approximately 65 F-16s to Ukraine, which will effectively double the number of fighter jets currently available to the Ukrainian military, all of which are older Soviet-era models. For President Zelensky, the arrival of these jets cannot come soon enough, as he has been advocating for more fighter aircraft to carry out critical missions. These missions include Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD), which aims to neutralize Russia's surface-to-air missile systems, and Air Interdiction operations, which focus on disrupting and damaging Russian ground forces. Defensive Counter Air (DCA) missions are also vital, as they protect Ukrainian territory from Russian aircraft and missiles. This year, Ukraine has faced significant threats from Russia, including the use of precision-guided munitions that can strike targets from a distance. If Ukraine can successfully protect its F-16s on the ground, there is hope that these jets can play a pivotal role in pushing back Russian aircraft and safeguarding Ukrainian ground forces. The F-16s will be armed with advanced AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, which possess the capability to self-guide towards targets after being launched. This is a significant upgrade from the missiles currently used by Ukraine's Soviet-era aircraft, which require a constant lock on the target throughout the targeting and launching process. This limitation places Ukrainian jets at greater risk, as they cannot fire and retreat as effectively as the F-16s can. However, not everyone is convinced that the F-16s will be able to adequately protect Ukraine's frontline towns. If the jets operate at high altitudes, they may become vulnerable to Russian air defense systems. Conversely, flying at lower altitudes may necessitate deeper incursions into Russian territory, which carries its own set of risks. Some experts argue that rather than being seen as potential targets, the F-16s will enhance Ukraine's air defenses due to their ability to intercept cruise missiles while other systems focus on ballistic missiles. Each airbase will have crews on standby to respond to aerial threats, but Ukraine is currently facing a significant shortage of air defense systems, particularly the Patriot systems. President Zelensky has stated that Ukraine requires at least 25 Patriot defense systems to effectively protect its airspace, yet it currently possesses only a limited number. While the F-16s may not single-handedly change the course of the war, they are expected to have a substantial impact on both ground and aerial operations. The pressing question remains whether there will be enough F-16s available and whether they can be adequately protected once they arrive.