US election polls: Who is ahead - Harris or Trump?

On November 5, voters in the United States will head to the polls to choose their next president. This election is particularly significant as it could result in either Donald Trump securing a second term or Kamala Harris making history as the first woman president of the United States. Initially, the election was set to be a rematch of the 2020 election, but the dynamics shifted dramatically in July when President Joe Biden announced the end of his campaign and threw his support behind Vice-President Kamala Harris. This unexpected turn of events has left many wondering about the potential outcome of the election. As we approach election day, we will closely monitor the polls to assess how major events, such as the recent presidential debate, influence the race for the White House. During the debate, which took place in Pennsylvania, Trump and Harris faced off for the first time as candidates. According to BBC’s Anthony Zurcher, Harris emerged as the stronger candidate in what was described as a heated encounter. However, the immediate impact of the debate on public opinion is still unclear. A limited snap poll conducted right after the debate revealed that among 600 registered voters who watched, 63% believed Harris performed better, while 37% favored Trump. Interestingly, prior to the debate, these same voters were evenly divided on who they thought would perform best. Despite this, only 4% of respondents indicated that the debate changed their voting intentions, suggesting that we will need to wait for more comprehensive national and state-level polls to see if any significant shifts occur in the coming days. In the months leading up to Biden’s withdrawal from the race, polls consistently indicated that he was trailing Trump. Although these polls were hypothetical at the time, several suggested that Harris might not fare much better. However, the race began to tighten after she hit the campaign trail, and she has since developed a slight lead over Trump in the average of national polls. The latest national polling averages show Harris at 47% and Trump at 44%. Harris's numbers saw a notable increase during her party’s four-day convention in Chicago, where she concluded the event with a speech that promised a 'new way forward' for all Americans. Since then, her numbers have remained relatively stable. Trump’s average has also been consistent, hovering around 44%, and he did not experience a significant boost from the endorsement of Robert F. Kennedy, who ended his independent candidacy shortly after Harris's convention. While national polls provide a useful overview of a candidate's popularity across the country, they do not always accurately predict election outcomes. This is largely due to the United States' electoral college system, which means that winning the most votes is not always the most crucial factor; rather, it depends on where those votes are cast. The US consists of 50 states, but most of them tend to vote for the same party in elections. Consequently, only a handful of states, known as battleground states, truly determine the outcome of the election. Currently, the polls indicate a very close race in seven battleground states, making it challenging to ascertain who is genuinely leading. There are fewer state polls available compared to national polls, resulting in less data to analyze. Additionally, every poll has a margin of error, meaning the numbers could fluctuate. Recent polls suggest that in several states, there is less than a one percentage point difference between the two candidates. Pennsylvania is particularly crucial, as it has the highest number of electoral votes available, making it easier for the winner to reach the 270 votes needed to secure the presidency. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were once strongholds for the Democratic Party, but Trump flipped them to Republican in 2016. Biden managed to reclaim these states in 2020, and if Harris can do the same this year, she will be well-positioned to win the election. The dynamics of the race have shifted since Harris became the Democratic nominee. On the day Biden exited the race, he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in these seven battleground states. The averages we see in the graphics are compiled by 538, a part of ABC News. They gather data from various polling companies, both nationally and in battleground states, to create these averages. To ensure quality, 538 only includes polls from companies that meet specific criteria, such as being transparent about their methodology and the number of people surveyed. At this moment, the polls indicate that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a couple of percentage points of each other, both nationally and in battleground states. When the race is this close, it becomes increasingly difficult to predict the winner. Polls underestimated Trump's support in both 2016 and 2020, and polling companies are actively working to address this issue. They are striving to make their results more reflective of the voting population, but achieving this is a complex task. Pollsters must also make educated guesses about various factors, including who will actually turn out to vote on November 5.