US must adapt its nuclear arms control policies to get China on board

The United States and China recently had a rare discussion about controlling nuclear weapons. But there's a big question about whether they can actually agree to reduce their nuclear arsenals. A study by the US Congressional Strategic Posture Commission suggests that the US should increase its nuclear weapons to deter potential threats from both Russia and China, who are seen as major nuclear rivals. The US and Russia have a lot of nuclear warheads ready to use, and even more stored away. China is also increasing its nuclear capabilities and might double its number of warheads in the next decade.

To keep a strong defense against both Russia and China, the US believes it needs to grow its nuclear stockpile. This would ensure that if one of these countries attacked first with nuclear weapons, the US could still respond strongly. However, if the US adds more nuclear weapons, China and Russia might do the same, leading to a dangerous arms race. Historically, the US only had to consider Russia as a nuclear equal, with both countries limiting their warheads through the New START treaty. But now, China is emerging as a new challenge, and the US is concerned about China's intentions and capabilities.

China is hesitant to enter nuclear discussions with the US because it feels the US doesn't respect the concept of mutually assured destruction, which means both countries would be harmed by a nuclear exchange. China is worried that the US might use talks to limit China's nuclear growth and weaken its defense. China expects the US and Russia to significantly reduce their nuclear weapons before considering serious three-way talks. The US, facing the possibility of not reducing its own arsenal, is considering expanding its number of warheads to deter both Russia and China.

Is there a compromise or a different way to solve this nuclear dilemma? The US's strategy of targeting an adversary's nuclear capabilities encourages more weapons buildup. This could lead to fears of preemptive strikes and potentially escalate to a full-scale nuclear war. Some experts suggest a new approach that combines nuclear and non-nuclear weapons to maintain stability without causing an arms race. This could include cyberattacks and missile defenses. By doing this, the US would acknowledge China's capabilities and create a sense of mutual vulnerability.

However, China might see this as the US trying to limit its power. To avoid this, the US could agree to a 'no first use' policy and limit spying near China's borders. China also wants the US to stop extending its nuclear protection to allies, which keeps countries like Japan and South Korea from developing their own nuclear programs. If the US withdrew this protection, these countries might feel forced to create their own nuclear weapons. Ultimately, China's participation in negotiations is a positive step, but real progress requires the US to adjust its policies and show a willingness to reduce its own nuclear capabilities in line with China's stance.