Indonesia election 2024: Prabowo’s VP pick of Jokowi’s son could be double-edged sword, analysts warn

In the upcoming 2024 presidential election in Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto, the current Defence Minister, is making his third attempt to secure the presidency. In a strategic move, he has chosen Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the son of incumbent president Joko Widodo, as his running mate. This decision, however, could be a double-edged sword. While it may boost Prabowo's chances of victory due to Widodo's popularity, it could also backfire and cause political unrest. Both Widodo and his son are members of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which has already nominated its own presidential candidate, former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo. Another contender in the race is ex-Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, with former minister Muhaimin Iskandar as his running mate. Widodo, who does not belong to a party of his own creation, has utilized the PDI-P as a political vehicle during his decade-long tenure. However, his son's selection as Prabowo's running mate may not sit well with the PDI-P, especially given the reported tensions between Widodo and Megawati Sukarnoputri, the former Indonesian president and PDI-P's chairwoman. The party is keen to maintain a strong image and a good relationship with Widodo for political stability. A controversial court ruling last week allowed 36-year-old Gibran, currently the mayor of Surakarta city, to contest the election despite not meeting the minimum age requirement of 40 for candidates. This ruling, made just days before candidate registration opened, has sparked a media frenzy and raised questions about Widodo's attempts to intervene in the electoral process and his ambitions to establish a political dynasty. However, Widodo has denied any intention of meddling in political affairs, emphasizing that Gibran is capable of making his own decisions. Despite the controversy surrounding the court ruling and Gibran's nomination, a recent poll showed the Prabowo-Gibran pairing receiving 35. 9% of votes, indicating that voters might not completely reject dynastic politics, especially if they are satisfied with Widodo's performance as the incumbent. Prabowo could also leverage Widodo's enduring popularity to attract voters, while hoping that the controversy surrounding the court ruling and Gibran's candidacy would subside. Prabowo and Widodo have developed closer ties since their bitter rivalry in the previous two presidential elections, with Widodo even appointing Prabowo as his defence minister. Widodo's high approval ratings and large number of loyal supporters could potentially mobilize millions of votes for his chosen candidate. The legal path ahead for Prabowo is also clearer after Indonesia's top court rejected an effort to block presidential candidates who are over 70 or implicated in human rights abuses. If successful, this petition would have prevented Prabowo, a 72-year-old former special forces general, from competing in the upcoming election.