Portugal elections loom as PM loses confidence vote

In Portugal, a significant political shift is underway as Prime Minister Luís Montenegro has lost a crucial vote of confidence. This vote, which took place in the parliament, resulted in a decisive outcome of 142 votes against him and only 88 in support. This loss is likely to lead Portugal into its third general election in just three years. The President of Portugal, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, has indicated that he would dissolve the parliament and call for new elections if the Prime Minister lost this vote, which could potentially take place in May. The situation escalated when the opposition party, the Socialists, announced plans to investigate Montenegro's business dealings. They raised concerns about a company named Spinumviva, which Montenegro had established. Even after he became the leader of the opposition, he continued to receive substantial payments from this company. The opposition questioned the legality of transferring ownership of the company to his wife and two sons, especially since they share assets as a married couple. Although the couple has since made their sons the sole owners, doubts linger about the sources of the company's income. Until recently, Spinumviva was receiving €4,500 a month from a hotel and casino group called Solverde, which is currently under review for its gambling license. The Prime Minister has not disclosed the identities of other clients or the specific services that Spinumviva provides. Montenegro, who is a trained lawyer, claims that the company offers consultancy services related to data privacy laws and outsources work to external experts. However, the Bar Association is now investigating whether the company is unlawfully providing services that are restricted to licensed lawyers. In recent days, Montenegro's cabinet has approved a series of spending measures, which many see as an attempt to demonstrate that the government is actively working for the benefit of the country. This political turmoil may create an opportunity for the far-right party Chega, which is currently the third-largest party in parliament, to intensify its criticism of corruption in politics. Chega has also gained from the resignation of Montenegro's predecessor, António Costa, who is now the president of the European Council. Costa's name surfaced in a criminal investigation concerning government contracts, although he has not been formally accused of any wrongdoing. However, Chega has faced its own scandals recently, with three of its members accused of various crimes, including one who was charged with stealing luggage at Lisbon airport. Until recently, Montenegro's coalition with the conservative People's Party was leading in the opinion polls, having narrowly won the 2024 general election just a year ago. However, they are now trailing behind the Socialists, led by Pedro Nuno Santos, who previously served as a minister under António Costa. None of the major political parties seem eager for a snap election, primarily because they fear that voters may not be enthusiastic about selecting a new government so soon after the current one took office. Additionally, the timing is not ideal due to ongoing geopolitical issues. Nevertheless, it appears that Portugal is on a clear path toward elections in May. The Prime Minister has opted to appeal to voters rather than confront an inquiry, a decision that the opposition leader has labeled as 'cowardly. ' Pedro Nuno Santos has consistently pledged not to support any government confidence motion, further complicating the political landscape.