The endgame in Ukraine: How the war could come to a close in 2025

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has reached a critical juncture, with significant developments occurring on the battlefield and in international politics. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently stated that the situation is evolving rapidly, with daily movements along the front lines. In the eastern region of Ukraine, Russian forces are making substantial advances through the Donbas area, capturing towns and villages. This has forced many civilians to flee their homes, while others wait until the violence escalates before attempting to escape to safer areas. Despite Ukraine's notable efforts to counterattack, it appears that the country is losing ground more quickly than at any point since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. The war has resulted in an estimated million casualties, including both deaths and injuries, leaving Ukraine in a precarious position. As the conflict enters its third year, the political landscape is also shifting, particularly with the impending return of Donald Trump to the White House. Trump, who has not been particularly supportive of Ukraine in the past, has made bold claims about ending the war within 24 hours of taking office. However, experts caution that the new administration will face significant challenges, including inheriting a war that is currently trending negatively and lacking a clear strategy for success. Trump has expressed his disagreement with the previous administration's decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied long-range missiles against targets in Russia, suggesting that this escalation is detrimental to the situation. Furthermore, he has hinted that Ukraine may need to prepare for reduced aid, which raises concerns among Ukrainian officials. They firmly reject any notion that Trump's arrival in office will lead to immediate peace talks, arguing that negotiations are unrealistic until Russia faces more severe consequences for its actions. President Zelensky of Ukraine is keenly aware of the need to position himself as a viable partner for Trump. He has congratulated Trump on his election victory and has been proactive in engaging with his team. Zelensky's strategy includes demonstrating a willingness to cooperate and signaling that Ukraine can be a constructive ally. As part of this approach, he has proposed a 'Victory Plan' that outlines potential collaborations between Ukraine and the US after the war concludes. This plan suggests that Ukrainian troops could take over the roles of US forces stationed in Europe, and it emphasizes the importance of joint investments in Ukraine's natural resources. However, some aspects of the Victory Plan, such as NATO membership, have not received enthusiastic support from Ukraine's allies. NATO membership is crucial for Ukraine's long-term security, but the alliance remains divided on the issue. Zelensky has indicated that he would accept NATO membership for the parts of Ukraine currently under its control, but no formal offer has been made yet. The uncertainty surrounding Ukraine's future is compounded by the need for strong guarantees of security. Ukrainian officials have expressed concerns about the effectiveness of previous agreements and the lack of concrete mechanisms to ensure protection against future aggression. The idea of deploying peacekeepers in Ukraine has been discussed, but skepticism remains regarding the feasibility of such measures without US involvement. As the situation unfolds, NATO is exploring ways to enhance Ukraine's defense capabilities, including the provision of additional air defense systems to protect against Russian attacks. The UK is also considering sending troops to assist with training Ukrainian forces. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is working to deliver military assistance to Ukraine before the transition of power to Trump. Trump has indicated that he will continue to support Ukraine but expects NATO members to increase their defense spending significantly. The economic situation in Russia is deteriorating, with rising inflation and a struggling economy. Despite Putin's claims that sanctions are not a major concern, the war has taken a heavy toll on Russia, with significant losses on the battlefield. As the conflict continues, the question remains: how much more territory will Ukraine lose, and how many more lives will be affected before a resolution is reached?