What is COP29 and how will Trump’s election affect the climate talks?

COP29 is a significant global meeting focused on climate change, taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to November 22, 2024. World leaders are gathering to discuss crucial actions needed to combat rising global temperatures. A major topic of discussion is how to secure more financial support for poorer nations, enabling them to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. The choice of Azerbaijan as the host country has faced criticism due to its strong connections to the oil and gas industry, which are major contributors to climate change. Additionally, the recent election of Donald Trump, a known skeptic of climate change initiatives, raises concerns that his administration may distract from the critical discussions at COP29. Notably, several key leaders from major economies, including US President Joe Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and French President Emmanuel Macron, have chosen not to attend the conference. Their absence could diminish the effectiveness of the meeting, as many leaders will be preoccupied with other pressing global issues, such as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as financial challenges. The term 'COP' stands for 'Conference of the Parties,' referring to the countries that have ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This treaty was signed by nearly 200 nations in 1992, and the COP serves as the decision-making body for the agreement. Each year, representatives from these countries convene to negotiate strategies for addressing the root causes of climate change. It is anticipated that between 40,000 and 50,000 delegates will participate in COP29, including representatives from all UN member states, the European Union, diplomats, climate scientists, trade union leaders, and environmental activists. However, the absence of leaders from some of the largest carbon-emitting countries raises concerns about the potential for meaningful agreements. Experts believe that Azerbaijan may lack the diplomatic influence and financial resources necessary to facilitate significant progress at COP29. Many leaders are looking ahead to COP30, scheduled to take place in Brazil in November 2025, as a more promising opportunity for achieving substantial agreements. During COP29, key figures, including former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres, have expressed doubts about the current structure's ability to deliver the rapid and extensive changes needed to ensure a safe climate for humanity. One of the central questions at this year's conference is the issue of funding. Under the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, world leaders committed to limiting global temperature increases to no more than 1. 5 degrees Celsius. To achieve this goal, countries must intensify their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As part of the agreement, nations pledged to establish a new financial target for developing countries by 2025, aimed at assisting them in reducing their carbon emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change. Achieving consensus on this new financial target is seen as a vital step in fostering trust between wealthy and developing nations, as past efforts have not yielded satisfactory results. African nations and small island states are advocating for climate finance to exceed $1 trillion annually by 2030. Historically, countries like China and those in the Gulf region have been classified as developing economies and have not been required to contribute significantly to climate finance. Wealthy nations, including the EU, argue that this classification must change to increase overall funding. Another contentious issue at COP29 is the domestic climate action plans of individual countries. Nations are required to update their plans every five years, with the next deadline approaching in February 2025. Some countries may unveil their strategies at COP29, but if these plans are weak and unlikely to prevent global temperatures from exceeding 1. 5 degrees Celsius, it could create tensions with nations most vulnerable to climate change. There are also uncertainties regarding the continuation of fossil fuel agreements established during previous climate talks, as some countries have indicated a desire to retract commitments to reduce reliance on oil, coal, and gas. The decision to hold COP29 in Azerbaijan is controversial due to the country's plans to expand gas production by up to one-third over the next decade. Critics argue that a nation with such ambitions should not be leading a conference aimed at transitioning away from fossil fuels, which are a primary driver of climate change. Concerns have also been raised about Azerbaijan's human rights record, as the government does not tolerate political opposition. The election of Donald Trump could significantly impact COP29 discussions. Trump has previously labeled green energy initiatives as a 'scam' and is expected to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement and halt financial contributions. Although Trump will not attend COP29, his administration's representatives will be present, but any agreements reached will not be binding for the incoming administration. Some experts suggest that Trump's election may inadvertently foster unity among other leaders, potentially leading to a coalition that agrees on financial support for poorer nations. They argue that the climate crisis and the global response to it will persist beyond any single leader's term. In 2024, the effects of climate change have become increasingly evident, with extreme heatwaves and severe storms causing widespread disruption. Projections from the European climate service indicate that 2024 is likely to be marked by exceptionally high temperatures. The impacts of warmer oceans have been felt through powerful hurricanes and devastating floods, underscoring the urgent need for action. Agreements reached at COP29 could influence how countries develop their economies, particularly in promoting green energy sources. This, in turn, could affect energy prices and the allocation of funds for supporting poorer nations. Ultimately, the goal of these discussions is to create a safer and cleaner world for everyone, mitigating the worst consequences of climate change.