Will the government be able to hit its new targets?

In a recent speech, Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party, outlined several ambitious targets that the government aims to achieve in key areas. He emphasized that these targets are 'measurable milestones' that will empower the British public to hold the government accountable for its performance. One of the primary focuses of Starmer's speech was the National Health Service (NHS) in England. The Prime Minister has set a target that 92% of patients waiting for planned treatment should be seen within 18 weeks of being referred. This target was a key promise made during the election campaign, and the government has committed to achieving it by 2029. However, recent statistics reveal that as of September 2024, only 58. 5% of patients were seen within the 18-week timeframe. This figure has barely changed since Labour took office, as it was 58. 8% when they assumed power. The last time the government successfully met the 92% target was in November 2015, indicating a significant challenge ahead. To meet this ambitious goal, the government has stated that the NHS must handle an additional 40,000 appointments and operations each week. To support this effort, the government has increased the health department's budget by 3. 8% for both 2024-25 and 2025-26. However, Matthew Taylor, the chief executive of the NHS Confederation, has expressed concerns that simply increasing the number of appointments will not suffice to meet the broader 92% waiting list target. He argues that the NHS requires comprehensive reform, rather than just an increase in activity. In addition to healthcare, Starmer addressed the economy, pledging to enhance the financial well-being of households across the country. The government plans to track this improvement using two key measures. The first is real household disposable income (RHDI) per person, which represents the amount of money individuals have left after paying taxes. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), RHDI per person is projected to rise by approximately 0. 5% annually throughout this Parliament. This growth rate is slightly better than the previous Parliament's average of 0. 3%. The second measure involves examining GDP, which gauges the size of the economy divided by the population. Starmer asserted that GDP per capita is expected to increase in every region of the UK. However, it is worth noting that during the last Parliament, overall GDP per capita actually declined in the UK. Starmer also reiterated the manifesto pledge to achieve the highest sustained economic growth in the G7, which includes countries like the US, Canada, Italy, France, Japan, and Germany. Nevertheless, forecasts indicate that Canada and the US are likely to experience stronger average growth than the UK between 2024 and 2029. It is important to recognize that these forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainty, particularly when it comes to economic growth and income levels. The government has also reaffirmed its commitment to hiring 13,000 additional neighborhood police officers, volunteer special constables, and Police Community Support Officers (PCSOs) as part of its strategy to enhance public safety. The Police Federation has welcomed this recruitment initiative, but they have also raised concerns about low morale within the force due to real-term pay cuts in recent years. A recent survey revealed that 22% of police officers are considering leaving their positions within the next two years. In the realm of education, the government has pledged to increase the percentage of children in England who are 'ready for school' by the age of five to 75%. Current data suggests that in 2023-24, 67. 7% of children achieved a 'good level of development' at age five, a slight increase from 67. 2% the previous year. The government is also in the process of implementing a plan to provide 30 hours of government-funded childcare per week for children under five in England, starting in September 2025. However, the Early Years Alliance, which represents nurseries in England, has expressed concerns that the recent increase in employer National Insurance Contributions could lead to additional costs averaging over £18,600 per provider. Without extra funding to offset these tax increases, nurseries may withdraw from the free childcare scheme or even face closure. Lastly, in line with Labour's manifesto, Starmer has recommitted to building 1. 5 million net additional homes in England during this Parliament. This translates to an average of 300,000 homes per year. However, in 2023-24, only 221,070 net additional homes were delivered, representing a 6% decline from the previous year. The government is introducing new housing targets for local councils in England, which were previously abandoned, and is reforming planning laws to expedite the building process. Nevertheless, many housing experts remain skeptical about the feasibility of Labour's target, given the high costs of new housing that have deterred buyers and discouraged private developers from investing. In November 2023, Starmer discussed the goal of achieving '100% clean power by 2030. ' The party's election manifesto pledged 'zero-carbon electricity by 2030. ' Starmer now asserts that the government will aim for at least 95% clean power by 2030. When questioned about whether this represented a change in the target, he denied it. The National Energy System Operator (NESO) has indicated that it is feasible to build, connect, and operate a clean power system for Great Britain by 2030 while maintaining security of supply. However, they also cautioned that achieving this goal would be 'at the limit of what is feasible.