US election polls: Who is ahead - Harris or Trump?

On November 5, voters in the United States will head to the polls to choose their next president. This election is particularly significant as it could result in either Donald Trump securing a second term or Kamala Harris making history as the first woman president of the United States. Initially, the election was expected to be a rematch of the 2020 election, but the dynamics shifted dramatically in July when President Joe Biden announced the end of his campaign and threw his support behind Vice-President Kamala Harris. As election day draws near, the central question remains: will the outcome favor Trump or Harris? In the lead-up to the election, we will closely monitor the polls to gauge the impact of the ongoing campaign on the race for the White House. A recent debate between Harris and Trump attracted a staggering 67 million viewers, who tuned in to witness the candidates clash in Pennsylvania on September 10. Following the debate, polls were conducted to assess public opinion on who emerged victorious. A survey involving 1,400 registered voters revealed that 53% believed Harris won the debate, while only 24% sided with Trump. This data indicates that Harris holds a five-point lead over Trump nationally, with 47% support compared to Trump's 42%. This marks an increase from the previous month, where Harris was at 45% and Trump at 41%. Another poll, which surveyed 1,400 adults across the United States, yielded similar results, with 55% declaring Harris the winner and 25% favoring Trump. However, despite these favorable perceptions of Harris's debate performance, there was no significant shift in voting intentions, as she maintained a narrow lead of 46% to 45% before and after the debate. In a separate poll of 3,300 likely voters, Harris was reported at 50% while Trump stood at 45%, although Trump experienced a slight decline from 46% in the previous poll. This suggests that while a majority of viewers felt Harris performed better in the debate, it may not necessarily translate into increased support at the ballot box, as many Americans have already made their voting decisions. In the months leading up to Biden's withdrawal from the race, polls consistently indicated that he was trailing Trump. Although these polls were hypothetical at the time, several suggested that Harris might not fare significantly better. However, the race tightened once she began her campaign, and she has since developed a slight lead over Trump in national polling averages. The latest national polling averages for both candidates indicate that Harris is ahead, but it is essential to note that these polls do not always accurately predict election outcomes. This is primarily due to the electoral college system in the United States, where each state is allocated a number of votes roughly proportional to its population. To win the presidency, a candidate must secure 270 out of a total of 538 electoral college votes. While there are 50 states in the US, most tend to consistently vote for the same party, meaning that only a handful of states are truly competitive and can swing the election. These states are referred to as battleground states. Currently, the polls in the seven battleground states are extremely close, making it challenging to determine who is genuinely leading the race. There are fewer state polls compared to national polls, resulting in less data to analyze, and each poll carries a margin of error that could affect the reported numbers. As it stands, recent polls indicate that there is less than a one percentage point difference between the two candidates in several battleground states. Pennsylvania, in particular, is crucial as it has the highest number of electoral votes available, making it easier for the winner to reach the necessary 270 votes. Historically, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have been strongholds for the Democratic Party, but Trump managed to flip them in 2016. Biden successfully reclaimed these states in 2020, and if Harris can achieve the same this year, she will be well-positioned to win the election. The dynamics of the race have shifted significantly since Harris became the Democratic nominee. On the day Biden exited the race, he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in these seven battleground states. The averages presented in the graphics above are compiled by 538, a part of the American news network ABC News. They gather data from various polls conducted both nationally and in battleground states by numerous polling organizations. To ensure quality control, 538 only includes polls from companies that meet specific criteria, such as transparency regarding the number of participants surveyed, the timing of the poll, and the methodology used (telephone calls, text messages, online surveys, etc. ). This rigorous approach helps maintain the integrity of the polling data. At present, the polls indicate that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are closely matched, with only a few percentage points separating them both nationally and in battleground states. When the race is this tight, it becomes increasingly difficult to predict the eventual winner. In previous elections, polls underestimated Trump's support in both 2016 and 2020. Polling companies are actively working to address this issue by refining their methods to better reflect the composition of the voting population. However, making these adjustments is a complex task, and pollsters still face challenges in accurately predicting factors such as voter turnout on November 5.