US sends drone ships to navy bases in Japan, signalling new role for driverless vessels in deterring China

The United States recently dispatched two multi-role unmanned surface vessels (USVs), or drone ships, to its naval bases in Japan. This action has led defence analysts to speculate that the US may be planning to incorporate these drone ships into its strategy to deter China over Taiwan. The two USVs, named the Mariner and Ranger, are part of the US Third Fleet. They embarked on their journey from California to Yokosuka, Japan, last month as part of the US Navy’s Integrated Battle Problem 23. 2 exercise (IBP23. 2). Prior to their arrival in Yokosuka, the Mariner and Ranger made a stop at the Indo-Pacific headquarters in Pearl Harbour, Hawaii. Here, two smaller USVs, the Hunter and Sea Hawk, had participated in a similar exercise the previous year. The IBP23. 2 is an exercise designed to test the integration of USVs with manned vessels in the Indo-Pacific region. This marked the first instance of the US Navy deploying its unmanned ships over such a vast distance. The Ranger was escorted by the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Shoup during its Pacific crossing. Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at the Taiwanese naval academy, suggested that the deployment of drone boats alongside warships represents a novel approach in naval warfare. This tactic mirrors modern air combat strategies, which often involve pairing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with fighter jets during aerial engagements. He further explained that the use of drone boats and UAVs is part of an offset strategy aimed at reducing the number of combatants in modern warfare, with the ultimate objective of minimising casualties. Lu also noted that the Ranger appears to have made stops in Guam and Okinawa, based on a photo published by the Japan Times last month that displayed the ship’s navigation path on a screen in its control room. He stated that satellite imagery and the maritime traffic automatic identification systems of Guam and Okinawa showed the two USVs and the USS Shoup destroyer operating in unison during their lengthy journey. The markings on the Mariner seemed to have worn off after enduring strong winds and waves on the high seas. He added that the two drone boats were equipped with combinable weapons modules, such as the US Navy’s Standard Missile-6, capable of performing air defence, terminal ballistic missile defence, and anti-ship strike functions. The development of USVs was highlighted in the Pentagon’s replicator initiative, a military tech innovation plan announced by US Deputy Secretary of Defence Kathleen Hicks in August. The plan involves the development of thousands of UAVs, a move seen as a response to the rapid increase in Chinese warships in recent decades. According to the Rand Corporation, the US continues to possess the world’s most powerful navy, with a combined tonnage of around 4. 6 million tonnes. However, it only has about 280 warships, compared to China’s 425 active warships as of August 2023, a number the Pentagon expects to rise to 440 by 2030. The US Navy’s Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Navigation Plan 2022 calls for the American naval fleet to expand to approximately 523 ships by 2045, comprising 373 manned ships and 150 unmanned ships. Lu stated that it would be impossible for the American shipbuilding industry to match China’s capacity to mobilise an entire nation for a single task. He suggested that the replicator initiative and the IBP exercises were Washington’s best options for catching up with Beijing. Scott Savitz, a military expert at the Rand Corporation, proposed that Taiwan should collaborate with the US to launch swarms of explosive USVs to deter Beijing from attacking the self-ruled island. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the effectiveness of explosive USV technology. Savitz noted that while Ukraine has been supported by Starlink, the satellite internet network operated by SpaceX, Taiwan lacks its own satellite network to facilitate communication and connectivity between drones and unmanned ships. However, he believes this obstacle can be overcome. Savitz stated that the US military possesses the necessary capabilities, which it could potentially enable Taiwan to utilise. Furthermore, the required volume of communications will likely decrease as USV autonomy becomes more advanced. Beijing considers the self-ruled island as part of its territory, which it intends to reclaim – by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but oppose any unilateral alteration of the cross-strait status quo by force. Mainland China has also made significant advancements in USV technology. Last year, the state-owned China State Shipbuilding Corporation unveiled a model of a 340-tonne multipurpose unmanned combat surface vessel (UCSV) with a maximum speed of 42 knots and a range of 4,000 nautical miles. A photo released by China State Shipbuilding Corporation earlier this year showed a smaller USV prototype equipped with highly advanced radar. The radar systems will make the drone boat more difficult to detect, allowing it to hit targets accurately when operating as a “suicide vessel” or conducting close-in reconnaissance. However, Savitz suggested that the US Navy, which has more real combat experience than its Chinese counterpart, has some advantages in developing USV technology.