Cop29: US out, China in - the future of climate talks?

In Baku, Azerbaijan, a significant climate conference known as COP is currently taking place, and it has become a focal point for discussions about climate change. Justin Rowlatt, the Climate Editor, reports that the atmosphere at the conference is tense, with many participants expressing frustration over the lack of cooperation among various teams. One chief negotiator from a powerful country reached out to Rowlatt, expressing his anger about the obstructionist behavior of other teams. This sentiment has been echoed throughout the week, with many attendees claiming that this is the worst COP they have ever experienced. Typically, as deadlines approach, the negotiating texts become more concise, but this year, they seem to be expanding instead. A looming concern is the potential withdrawal of the United States from the COP process, especially with Donald Trump, the president-elect, who has labeled climate action a 'scam' and has promised to increase US oil production. However, amidst this uncertainty, there is a glimmer of hope: China appears to be taking a more proactive role in the discussions. The chief negotiator noted that China is being unusually cooperative this year, which is a departure from its previous behavior. Historically, China has played a dual role in these negotiations, sometimes aligning with the US and Europe on ambitious climate targets, while at other times, it has hindered progress. A notable example of this was during COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, where high hopes for a binding agreement were dashed when China resisted US pressure for international monitoring of emissions. This year, however, the negotiator observed a marked change in China's approach, with a willingness to engage constructively in discussions. One of the most significant developments at the conference was China's announcement of its climate funding. Traditionally, China has kept its climate policies and financial contributions under wraps, but this year, it revealed that it has provided over $24 billion to developing countries for climate action since 2016. This revelation sent shockwaves through the conference, as it demonstrated China's commitment to supporting global climate efforts. According to Li Shuo, a director at the China Climate Hub, this is a notable signal, as it is the first time the Chinese government has disclosed a clear figure regarding its financial contributions. Despite being classified as a developing country in the context of UN climate talks, China is the world's second-largest economy. This unique status allows China to avoid contributing to the financial pool that wealthier nations have agreed to provide for poorer countries. Currently, this fund totals $100 billion annually, but developing countries require at least $1 trillion each year to transition to clean energy and address the impacts of climate change. Chinese investments are already funding projects like solar farms and energy-efficient lighting in countries such as Rwanda, where electric buses manufactured in China are being utilized. The language used by Chinese negotiators has also evolved, as they now employ terms that align with those used by developed nations. This shift in language is significant, as it indicates China's desire to engage more fully in the global climate dialogue. Professor Michael Jacobs, an expert in climate politics, notes that this change is not merely altruistic; it reflects China's strategic interests. The private sector in China is leading the charge in renewable energy, with Chinese companies dominating the global market for solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles. As the demand for renewable energy surges in developing countries, China is well-positioned to meet this need. The Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to create new trade routes, complements China's efforts to export clean technology to emerging economies. Recently, President Xi Jinping inaugurated a new port in Peru, furthering this initiative. If China assumes a more central role in climate negotiations, it would represent a significant shift in the dynamics of the COP process. Historically, Western nations, particularly the US and EU, have driven the momentum of these talks, often supported by smaller, climate-vulnerable countries. Experts suggest that China may not lead in the same overt manner as the US and Europe but will instead work behind the scenes to facilitate discussions and encourage both developing and developed nations to enhance their climate commitments. However, challenges remain, particularly with countries that prioritize their fossil fuel interests. One of the major obstacles at the Baku conference was Saudi Arabia, which has been resistant to transitioning away from fossil fuels. Despite these challenges, some observers remain optimistic about the future of climate negotiations. Camilla Born, a former member of the UK's negotiating team, believes that the focus of future talks will shift from political posturing to the economic realities of energy. This transition could lead to new investments and technologies that address climate change more effectively. Ultimately, the future of climate talks is uncertain, but it is clear that the landscape is changing, and countries must adapt to these new dynamics.