Why Ukraine hopes Trump minerals deal will win back US support

Ukraine is currently engaged in significant discussions with the United States, hoping that a new agreement regarding the country's natural resources will help regain support from the US during a challenging period. The negotiations are taking place in Saudi Arabia, where senior officials from both nations are meeting to explore ways to bring an end to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The US aims to establish a framework for a ceasefire and a future peace agreement. For Ukraine, this meeting is also an opportunity to mend its relationship with Washington and to become involved in a process that it has not been part of until now. President Volodymyr Zelensky is prepared to sign a deal concerning critical minerals at any moment. The expectation is that with renewed US involvement, there will be increased pressure on Russia to reach a compromise. 'Seventy percent of our critical minerals are still underground,' explains Ihor Semko, who oversees the Zavallya quarry, the largest graphite quarry in Europe. This quarry, located in the serene countryside of central Ukraine, has been shaped by 61 years of mining activity. The landscape features a lake surrounded by layers of earth in various shades, including rust, clay, and beige, resulting from the ongoing excavation. 'We currently have seven million tonnes of graphite ore remaining, which means we can continue operations for another 12 years,' says Ihor in a straightforward manner that reflects his role as the director of the quarry. However, the heavy machinery from the Soviet era remains inactive for 11 months of the year due to financial losses as anxious investors withdraw their support amid the ongoing war. This situation prompted President Zelensky to propose the utilization of the country's natural minerals as part of a potential ceasefire agreement with the US. The proposal suggests the creation of a co-owned fund that would receive 50% of the profits generated from Ukraine's critical minerals, as well as oil and gas. The funds would then be reinvested into the country's recovery efforts. 'If the Americans were to invest in a 50-50 partnership, it would be advantageous for us,' says Ihor. 'This would lead to new job opportunities, salaries for workers, and income for the owners. ' He believes that if the deal were not beneficial for Ukraine, there would be no discussions about any agreements at all. The relationship between the US and Ukraine has become strained following a tense exchange between President Trump and President Zelensky during a meeting in the Oval Office. Zelensky could not have anticipated how unfriendly the US's stance would become. In exchange for granting the US a share of its future wealth, Zelensky sought security guarantees—military assurances in case Russia were to violate a future ceasefire. However, the White House has not provided any guarantees and has instead withdrawn crucial military support to compel Ukraine to reach a compromise. This strategy appears to have been effective. President Trump believes that the mere presence of American companies involved in mining critical minerals would deter Russia from invading Ukraine again. While US businesses did not prevent Russian President Vladimir Putin from acting last time, Zelensky feels he has no choice but to comply for the time being. Graphite is essential for producing items such as batteries, solar panels, and electric car motors. At the Zavallya quarry, graphite is processed at a large refinery located nearby. At its peak, the facility processed up to 60,000 tonnes of graphite each month, but that number has now dwindled to around 5,000 tonnes. The site resembles an industrial ghost town for most of the year. Valerii Kharkovets, a chief engineer at the quarry, would welcome any form of investment. 'Security guarantees are unlikely, as this agreement is more focused on economic aspects than military ones,' he states. 'However, if foreign companies become involved, those Ukrainian territories might be left undisturbed. ' For Ukraine and the US to profit from critical minerals, it may take decades. However, Kyiv needs to secure more than just an investment in Saudi Arabia. If reports indicate that a minerals agreement alone will not be sufficient to win over the Trump administration, a monumental diplomatic effort will be necessary. Neither Ukraine nor its European allies can afford a repeat of the tensions witnessed in the Oval Office.