South China Sea: US, Australia, Japan would join Philippines-China ‘fight’, says analyst

The South China Sea has been a hotbed of contention, with the Philippines and China locked in a dispute over territorial rights. Now, it appears that other nations, including Australia, Japan, and the United States, may join the fray in support of the Philippines. This prediction comes from an analyst who believes these countries are likely to intervene in the escalating conflict. Gilberto Teodoro, the Philippines' defense secretary, has expressed a similar sentiment, hoping for more countries to join their cause. This comes in the wake of accusations from both the Philippines and China, each blaming the other for escalating tensions in the disputed waters. The Philippines alleges that China's coastguard intentionally collided with their boats during a resupply mission. The incident occurred within the Philippines' 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone, where a ship has been grounded since 1999.

China, however, refutes these claims, stating that the Philippine boats dangerously bumped into their coastguard vessels. Despite an international arbitration award declaring otherwise, China continues to claim sovereignty over almost the entirety of the South China Sea. The analyst suggests that Teodoro's call for support is likely directed at three tiers of potential allies. The first tier includes Australia, Japan, and the US, who have been directly affected by China's assertive military and economic moves. The second tier comprises the European Union and Britain, who recognize China as a systemic threat to liberal values. However, their ability to provide military support may be limited due to their geographical distance from the region. The third tier includes South Korea and New Zealand, who may join the conflict in the event of an open war.

However, John Bradford, executive director at the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies, believes that the 'fight' Teodoro refers to is primarily diplomatic. He commends the Philippines for assembling a growing coalition of partners, but questions which of these would be ready to provide material support in a conflict. Bradford also praises the Philippines for effectively documenting Chinese behavior in the disputed waters, using engaging images and videos as part of a public diplomacy campaign to strengthen support for its position. This campaign appears to be successful, with countries like France, South Korea, and Japan expressing their support for the Philippines and condemning China's actions as illegal, aggressive, and provocative. Bradford warns that China is likely to respond through escalation, a stark contrast to its previous stance of tempering its military action in favor of portraying itself as a peaceful partner in Southeast Asia.