Hong Kong coronavirus cases may peak over next few months amid declining antibodies and high hospitalisation rate, pandemic adviser warns

A government pandemic adviser in Hong Kong, Professor David Hui Shu-cheong, has issued a warning that the city may see a peak in coronavirus cases over the next few months. This is due to a decline in vaccine-induced antibodies and a high daily hospitalisation rate of about 120 cases. Professor Hui, who is a professor of respiratory medicine at Chinese University, stated on Sunday that the positive rate of nucleic acid testing was 15 per cent. He added that there was a high probability of another peak in cases between this month and December, which could coincide with a flu outbreak. On a daily basis, there are about 100 to 120 cases requiring hospitalisation, with the XBB variant accounting for 98 per cent of these cases. Given that the previous peak occurred between April and May this year and antibodies from vaccines tend to decline after about six months, another peak is estimated to occur between this month and the end of the year. The Covid-19 vaccines administered in the city do not specifically target the XBB strain. However, the third-generation vaccines produced by Pfizer and Moderna, which were approved by the Federal Drug Administration in the United States last month, use the sub-lineage XBB. 1. 5 as their primary antigen. After vaccination, there will be high antibody levels against the XBB lineage, as well as coverage against the EG. 5. 1 and BA. 2. 86 variants currently circulating overseas. The committee responsible for deciding which vaccines to purchase will convene a meeting on Wednesday. They will consider the information provided by pharmaceutical companies and decide which vaccine to buy based on the most critical factor, which is having sufficiently high antibody levels. Professor Hui believes that authorities will continue to provide subsidies for vaccination to high-risk groups, such as elderly residents. A third-generation XBB shot could serve as a booster jab, he added, saying the first and second-generation vaccines still provided strong protection, which could prevent severe illness and reduce the risk of death, but they were less effective in preventing infection. Professor Ivan Hung Fan-ngai, a top infectious diseases expert from the University of Hong Kong, stated on Saturday that the Covid-19 pandemic had disrupted the seasonal flu cycle. He urged high-risk groups to get inoculated against the flu as soon as possible. He explained that the city was in the final stage of the summer flu season, with the winter outbreak expected to begin in February, which was later than usual, and end in April next year. Professor Hui said on Sunday that the arrival of the flu season in the city had become harder to predict due to the lifting of the mask-wearing mandate and the return of air travel. In the past, flu cases were less common between April and June, but this year there have been more occurrences. He added that flu cases began increasing in mid-August this year, with a 9. 2 per cent infection rate, indicating an upwards trend. He believes the number of cases has not yet peaked. A large-scale winter flu outbreak typically occurred between January and March in the city and it was more severe than the summer season. He noted that now is a good time to get vaccinated. After receiving the flu shot, it takes about two weeks to develop antibodies, which can provide protection for at least six months. He stressed that jabs could reduce the severity and risk of death, urging residents, especially those in the high-risk group, to get inoculated under the Government Vaccination Subsidy Scheme.