China's emissions may be falling - here's what you should know

China, the world’s most populous country and the largest emitter of carbon dioxide, has reached a significant turning point in its fight against climate change. For the first time, China’s carbon emissions have fallen over a twelve-month period ending in May 2025, even as the country’s demand for electricity continued to rise. This is a major milestone because previous drops in emissions only happened during times of crisis, such as the Covid pandemic, when economic activity slowed down. Now, China’s emissions are falling while its economy is still growing, which is a positive sign for the global effort to limit climate change. Experts like Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air have found that China’s emissions dropped by 1. 6 percent compared to the same period last year. This is important because China is responsible for about 30 percent of the world’s total emissions. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that simply keeping emissions steady is not enough to prevent dangerous global warming. To keep the planet from heating up more than 1. 5 degrees Celsius, emissions must actually start to decrease. If the world gets hotter than that, it could lead to severe problems for people everywhere, such as extreme weather, rising sea levels, and food shortages. So, what has caused China’s emissions to fall? The main reason is a huge increase in clean energy, especially wind and solar power. China has invested heavily in these technologies, installing more than half of all new wind and solar capacity worldwide in recent years. In fact, the amount of solar power China added last year is about the same as the total solar power in the entire European Union. According to the energy think tank Ember, wind and solar together produced more than a quarter of China’s electricity for the first time in April. At the same time, electricity from fossil fuels like coal dropped by 3. 6 percent in the first four months of 2025 compared to the previous year. This is a big change for a country that has relied on coal for so long. However, experts say that coal will still be needed for a while because wind and solar energy are not always available when people need electricity. China is not just using more clean energy; it is also leading the world in making the equipment needed for it. Chinese companies produce about 60 percent of the world’s wind turbines and 80 percent of its solar panels. These companies are also competing for the minerals needed to build these technologies, which sometimes leads to environmental damage and human rights issues in the places where the minerals are mined. Despite these challenges, experts agree that China’s rapid growth in clean energy has played a key role in stopping its emissions from rising. It’s important to note that China is not alone in this effort. Other countries, like the UK and the US, are also increasing their use of renewable energy. In the UK, renewables make up about 46 percent of all electricity, while in the US, they account for just over 20 percent. Many developed countries started cutting their emissions years ago by moving away from coal and heavy industry. China has often argued that it is only following the path set by richer countries, whose own economic growth caused a lot of pollution in the past. India’s emissions have also increased as its economy has grown. On average, people in China and India still produce less pollution per person than those in the US, but China’s per-person emissions are now similar to those in Japan and Europe. Looking ahead, it’s not certain that China’s emissions will keep falling. Some experts warn that if there are problems in the world, like wars or trade disputes, China might go back to using more coal to make sure it has enough energy. However, others believe that China’s focus on energy security could actually encourage more investment in renewables, since relying on its own clean energy makes the country less dependent on imports. China’s government is also betting on new industries that produce less pollution, such as information technology, biotechnology, electric vehicles, and clean energy. China has made international promises to reduce its carbon intensity by more than 65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030. Carbon intensity means the amount of carbon pollution produced for each unit of economic output. China set a goal to cut carbon intensity by 18 percent between 2020 and 2025, but progress slowed during the Covid pandemic, and by the end of 2024, the reduction was only 7. 9 percent. Now, China must make bigger cuts to meet its 2030 target. Experts say the recent drop in emissions is a good start, but China needs to set ambitious goals and follow through with strong policies. There are signs that China may take a more active role in global climate leadership, especially as other countries like the US have sometimes stepped back from climate action. President Xi Jinping has said that China must turn its climate promises into real results. If China continues on this path, it could help lead the world in the fight against climate change.