China, Philippines war of words over South China Sea collisions is a ‘test’ raising risk of hot conflict, observer says

China and the Philippines are engaged in an escalating blame game over two collisions in the disputed South China Sea. This is raising the risk of an armed conflict that could potentially involve the United States, warns a Chinese observer. The two incidents involved coastguard boats from both countries. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning accused the Philippines of provocation by repeatedly intruding into the Renai Jiao and spreading disinformation. Renai Jiao is the Chinese name for the Second Thomas Shoal, an area in the South China Sea where the collisions occurred. It is part of the Spratly Islands, claimed by both countries. The incidents could represent a tipping point for the relationship between Beijing and the United States, which is the Philippines' oldest ally in Asia. The Philippine defence minister accused the Chinese coastguard of intentionally hitting its resupply ship and a Philippine Coast Guard vessel. China dismissed the encounter as a slight collision, but the Philippines claimed the damage to the resupply ship was more than a scratch. The Philippines summoned the Chinese ambassador to lodge a diplomatic protest, and Beijing's embassy in Manila also filed a similar complaint. The face-offs occurred just before the latest round of negotiations regarding a code of conduct in the South China Sea. The talks aim to prevent major armed conflicts in the disputed waters. China claims indisputable sovereignty over the Second Thomas Shoal, which has become a flashpoint in the resource-rich waterway. China has repeatedly blocked the Philippines from resupplying construction materials to the shoal, where Manila has kept a rusty World War II-era ship since 1999 to stake its claims to the waters. No injuries were reported in the collisions, but it was the first time in recent years that physical clashes had taken place, drawing attention to the dispute. The observer warned that the face-off could damage bilateral trust and affect the ongoing code of conduct talks. The South China Sea is a crucial trade route to countries in Southeast and East Asia, and an escalation there would raise the risks of drawing in the United States, a treaty ally of the Philippines. Under their 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty, the US is obliged to defend the Philippines if its forces come under armed attack. The commitment was reaffirmed by the US State Department after the collisions. The same day, the US also conducted its first-ever trilateral aerial exercise with Japan and South Korea, in response to evolving North Korean nuclear threats. However, it remains to be seen how much the US would like to see a conflict between China and the Philippines escalate. According to Philippine officials, Chinese coastguard ships formed a blockade to prevent Philippine ships from delivering supplies to forces stationed at Second Thomas Shoal. While coastguard vessels of both sides were involved in the incident, no direct conflict had taken place between them. This was a sign that both sides had sought to avoid the crisis spiralling out of control. But the risk of conflict remained high, as the Philippines has said it will continue its resupply missions, and Beijing will not back down. In an unusual move, China issued a quick statement after the first encounter and released two videos after the second collision. The Philippines, meanwhile, brought journalists on a coastguard ship, in an apparent attempt to put public pressure on China. This is a test for both sides, the observer said.