How the world’s smelliest fruit is making coffee more expensive

Have you ever thought about why your morning coffee might cost more in the near future? There are several reasons for this, and it all begins with some significant challenges in the regions where coffee is cultivated. In London, a cup of coffee can set you back around £5, while in New York, it can reach about $7. These prices may seem outrageous, but they could soon become commonplace due to a combination of issues affecting coffee production worldwide. Judy Ganes, a market analyst, states that the price of unroasted coffee beans is currently at a historically high level. This situation is attributed to a mix of adverse weather conditions, crop difficulties, and even a notoriously pungent fruit known as durian. So, what does all this mean for your daily caffeine fix? Let's delve deeper! In 2021, an unusual frost devastated coffee crops in Brazil, the largest producer of Arabica beans, which are commonly used in specialty coffee. This shortage prompted buyers to seek coffee from other countries, such as Vietnam, which primarily produces Robusta beans. However, Vietnam was grappling with its own challenges, facing the worst drought in nearly a decade. Climate change has been impacting the growth of coffee plants, according to Will Firth, a coffee consultant based in Ho Chi Minh City. As a result, many Vietnamese farmers have shifted their focus to cultivating durian instead of coffee. This smelly yellow fruit is gaining popularity in China, and farmers are eager to capitalize on this emerging market. In fact, Vietnam's share of the durian market in China nearly doubled between 2023 and 2024, with some estimates suggesting that durian crops are five times more profitable than coffee. This shift in focus is significant for farmers who have traditionally relied on coffee for their income. As they flood the market with durian, Robusta coffee exports from Vietnam plummeted by 50% in June compared to the same month last year, leading to a near depletion of coffee stocks. Meanwhile, exporters from Colombia, Ethiopia, Peru, and Uganda have ramped up their efforts, but their production has not been sufficient to alleviate the tight market conditions. Judy Ganes explains that just as demand for Robusta coffee began to surge, the world was scrambling to find more supply. This has resulted in both Robusta and Arabica beans trading at near-record highs in commodity markets. So, how is this shifting global coffee economy affecting the price of your coffee at local cafes? The short answer is: it could have an impact. Paul Armstrong, a coffee wholesaler, believes that coffee drinkers in the UK may soon face the shocking reality of paying more than £5 for their caffeine fix. He runs Carrara Coffee Roasters in the East Midlands, where he imports beans from South America and Asia, roasts them, and supplies cafes across the UK. He recently raised his prices to account for the increasing costs, but he notes that expenses have only intensified since then. With some of his contracts ending soon, the cafes he supplies will have to decide whether to pass these higher costs on to their customers. Will Firth points out that certain segments of the coffee industry will be more vulnerable than others. For instance, instant coffee, supermarket coffee, and gas station coffee are likely to see the most significant price increases. However, industry experts caution that a high market price for coffee does not necessarily mean that retail prices will rise correspondingly. Felipe Barretto Croce, the CEO of FAFCoffees in Brazil, agrees that consumers are feeling the pinch as prices have increased. However, he argues that this is primarily due to inflationary pressures, such as rising rent and labor costs, rather than solely the cost of coffee beans. In fact, consultancy Allegra Strategies estimates that beans account for less than 10% of the price of a cup of coffee. Therefore, even though coffee prices are on the rise, it remains an affordable luxury if you brew it at home. Additionally, the rising cost of lower-quality beans may lead consumers to view high-quality coffee as a better value. If you visit a specialty coffee shop in London, the price difference between a regular coffee and a premium coffee is now much smaller than it used to be. However, there is some hope for coffee lovers on the horizon. The upcoming spring crop in Brazil, which produces about one-third of the world's coffee, is now considered crucial. Felipe Croce emphasizes that everyone is watching to see when the rains will return. If the rains arrive early, the coffee plants should be healthy, and the flowering process will be successful. Conversely, if the rains are delayed until October, predictions for next year's crop yield may decline, and market stress will persist. In the long run, climate change poses serious challenges for the global coffee industry. A study conducted in 2022 concluded that even if we make significant efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the areas most suitable for coffee cultivation could shrink by 50% by the year 2050. One potential solution to safeguard the industry, supported by Felipe Croce, is the implementation of a 'green premium'—a small tax on coffee that would be directed to farmers to invest in sustainable agricultural practices that protect and maintain the viability of their farmlands. Therefore, while the smelly durian fruit is partly responsible for the current price increases, the changing climate may ultimately strain the affordability of coffee in the years to come.