Billionaire investor warns of threat to democracy

Ray Dalio, a billionaire investor who has a reputation for accurately predicting financial trends, has expressed serious concerns about the future of democracy in the United States as the election approaches. He believes that the upcoming election could lead to significant turmoil for the world's largest economy. This warning comes during a week when candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are preparing to face off in a highly anticipated televised debate. Dalio's primary worry is that regardless of who wins on November 4, the integrity of democracy could be at risk. He stated, 'There's a possibility that the loser, particularly if it's the Republicans and Donald Trump, might not accept losing, and you have a situation where it's a win-at-all-cost by both the left and the right, so neither side can compromise. ' This statement highlights his fear that the political divide in the country is so deep that it may prevent any form of cooperation between the two major parties. Furthermore, Dalio predicts that there will be a significant movement of people between states based on their political beliefs, economic conditions, and moral values. He noted that many individuals currently residing in states like California, New York, and New Jersey may choose to relocate to states such as Florida and Texas. He explained that this migration is driven not only by tax considerations but also by differing values among the states. He remarked, 'There's a big gap in values. ' Dalio's concerns are reminiscent of a historical period between 1930 and 1945 when economic crises led to the rise of dictatorships in several countries. He pointed out that nations like Germany, Italy, Spain, and Japan had democratic systems that ultimately collapsed due to internal conflicts between extreme political factions, including communism and fascism. He believes that we are witnessing modern-day versions of these conflicts in the United States today. Additionally, Dalio mentioned that there is already evidence of people migrating based on their values. For example, Elon Musk recently announced his move due to new regulations that he disagreed with. At 75 years old, Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund globally, managing assets worth $124 billion. He acknowledged that while he considers the likelihood of a civil war to be low, it is a possibility that should not be dismissed. He humbly stated that he does not claim to be infallible but believes he has been correct in his market predictions about 65% of the time. He cautioned, 'He who lives by the crystal ball is destined to eat ground glass. ' However, when it comes to the upcoming election, he is hesitant to predict the outcome, stating, 'I do not know how this election is going to turn out and how these things will turn out. I do know that we have an exceptionally high probability of instability.