Damascus and Assad now in Syrian rebels' sights

In recent days, a significant shift has occurred in Syria, particularly in the city of Hama, which has now fallen into the hands of opposition fighters. This city is strategically located on the route to the capital, Damascus. Just a short while ago, government officials were confidently asserting that the Syrian army would maintain control over Hama. However, the situation changed rapidly as insurgent fighters began entering the city. Shortly thereafter, the Syrian military acknowledged that it had retreated from Hama, marking the first time that rebel factions have taken control of this important city. Following their success in Hama, the insurgents, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have set their sights on Homs, another major city in Syria. As the threat of further conflict looms, tens of thousands of people are fleeing Hama, anticipating the next major battle. This escalation in violence raises the stakes for President Bashar al-Assad and his key allies, Russia and Iran. Homs holds considerable strategic importance, as it serves as a crossroads leading west to the heartland of support for the Assad regime and south toward the capital, Damascus. The recent developments indicate that HTS is gaining momentum and is now poised to directly challenge Assad's rule. In an interview with CNN, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani confirmed that the rebels aim to overthrow the Assad regime. This has led to increased scrutiny regarding whether Assad possesses the capability to withstand this renewed attempt to unseat him. The Syrian army, primarily composed of conscripts, has faced significant challenges in recent years. Many analysts believe that the army would have lost the war long ago if not for the intervention of external forces that came to Assad's aid. Soldiers in the Syrian army are often underpaid, poorly equipped, and suffer from low morale, with desertion being a persistent issue. In response to the military's inability to hold onto key cities like Aleppo and Hama, Assad recently issued an order to raise soldiers' salaries by 50%. However, this measure alone is unlikely to turn the tide of the conflict. While Russian air support has bolstered Syrian forces in Hama, it appears that this assistance was not sufficient to make a significant impact. The lack of comprehensive Russian military support has led to speculation that Moscow may be less capable of playing the game-changing role it once did in Syria, particularly due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has drained its resources. Nevertheless, Russia has compelling reasons to continue its support for Assad. President Putin's decisive military intervention in 2015 was instrumental in keeping Assad in power when he was on the brink of defeat, highlighting the failure of Western allies, particularly the United States, to fulfill their promises of support to the rebels. Russia has maintained a naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus for decades, which serves as its only military hub in the Mediterranean. If the insurgents succeed in capturing Homs, it could potentially open a route toward the Syrian coast, putting this vital base at risk. It seems unlikely that Russia would abandon its political and strategic interests in Syria, even if it means supporting Assad in a diminished capacity, controlling a significantly smaller portion of the country than the 60% he currently holds. Another critical player in this conflict is Iran, which has provided military support to Assad and backed various militias, including Hezbollah. Hezbollah's leader, Naim Qassem, has publicly declared that the group will stand by the Syrian government against what he describes as jihadist aggression orchestrated by the US and Israel. However, Hezbollah has faced challenges in recent months, and its fighters are still regrouping after recent Israeli offensives. Reports indicate that elite forces from Hezbollah have crossed into Syria and taken up positions in Homs, demonstrating their commitment to supporting Assad. Meanwhile, Iran appears to be adopting a more cautious approach, moving away from direct confrontations in the region compared to its more aggressive strategy in previous years. This shift may limit its willingness to provide the same level of military support to Assad as it has in the past. There has been speculation about the potential involvement of Iranian-backed militias from Iraq, but both the Iraqi government and influential Shia leaders have cautioned against this. Assad's political survival will depend not only on the capabilities of his armed forces and allies but also on the existing divisions among the various groups that oppose him. Beyond HTS and factions from Idlib, there are Kurdish-led forces in the northeast, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army in the north, and numerous other groups that still hold influence in different regions of the country. Among these groups is the Islamic State (IS), which could exploit the ongoing conflict to expand its presence beyond the remote desert areas where it currently operates. The failure of rebel factions to unite has been a key factor in Assad's political survival, and he and his supporters are hoping that the current situation will play out similarly. For now, support for Assad as the least unfavorable option still appears to be holding among several minority groups, including the Alawite sect, which fears the rise of extremist forces taking over their communities. While HTS has distanced itself from al-Qaeda, many still perceive it as an extremist organization. Ultimately, Assad's fate will likely hinge on the decisions made by the main external players in Syria. Russia, Iran, and Turkey have previously reached agreements regarding conflict zones in Syria, particularly in Idlib four years ago. However, the rapid and unexpected escalation of events may have caught them off guard, prompting a reassessment of their strategies and interests in a Syria with or without Assad.