Climate Change Puts Kiribati’s Tuna Treasure—and Economy—on Thin Ice

Kiribati is a country made up of 33 small islands in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. Even though the land area is tiny, when you add up all the ocean around the islands, Kiribati controls a huge area of water called the Exclusive Economic Zone, or EEZ. This EEZ is more than 3. 4 million square kilometers, which is even bigger than India. The waters are full of tuna, including skipjack, yellowfin, and bigeye. Tuna is very important to Kiribati’s economy. More than 70 percent of the government’s money comes from selling fishing licenses to foreign countries. These licenses allow big fishing boats from places like Japan, China, the United States, and Europe to catch tuna in Kiribati’s waters. In 2024, the country earned about $137 million from these licenses, which is almost three-quarters of all the money the government gets.

However, Kiribati is facing a serious threat from climate change. As the ocean gets warmer, tuna are starting to move to cooler waters further east. Scientists are worried that if the water keeps getting warmer, the tuna might leave Kiribati’s EEZ for good. If that happens, foreign fishing boats will not need to buy as many licenses, and the government will lose a lot of money. Some studies predict that Kiribati could lose more than $10 million a year by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions stay high. Even if emissions go down, local fishermen are still expected to catch less fish, especially in the Line Islands, where catches could drop by two-thirds.

This is a big problem for the people of Kiribati. The country’s population is growing, and most people rely on fish for food. The average person in Kiribati eats about 100 kilograms of fish each year, much more than people in the United States or Japan. If there are fewer fish, people will have to buy more imported food, which is more expensive and not as healthy. The government and international organizations are working on solutions. The United Nations’ Green Climate Fund has started a project to help Pacific Island countries like Kiribati adapt to climate change. The project will help improve warning systems and support food security. Kiribati is also trying to process more tuna locally and develop ocean farming for other fish. The government is looking for new ways to make money, such as tourism and renewable energy. Even though the challenges are big, Kiribati is trying to stay positive and find new opportunities for the future.