鮑文：一年的殺戮和破碎的假設已將中東推向更深、更廣泛的戰爭邊緣

The Middle East has been a region filled with dreams of peace, but the reality has often been one of violence and conflict. Over the past year, the situation has escalated dramatically, leading to a war that has caused immense suffering for millions of people. The recent conflict began with a surprise attack by Hamas, a militant group based in Gaza, which resulted in the deaths of around 1,200 people, mostly civilians in Israel. This shocking event was described by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as one of the worst days in the history of the state, comparing it to the horrors of the Holocaust. In response to the attacks, Israel launched a series of military operations against Gaza, which have resulted in the deaths of nearly 42,000 Palestinians, according to reports from the Hamas-run health ministry. The destruction in Gaza is widespread, with many homes reduced to rubble and countless families displaced. The ongoing violence has led to accusations of genocide against Israel from Palestinian leaders, further complicating the already tense situation. As the war continues, the Middle East finds itself on the brink of an even larger conflict, one that could have devastating consequences for the entire region. The past year of violence has stripped away many assumptions and beliefs that people held. One significant belief was that Netanyahu could manage the Palestinian issue without making any concessions. Many leaders in the United States and the United Kingdom believed that Netanyahu, despite his long-standing opposition to a Palestinian state, could be persuaded to accept one in order to end the conflict. However, Netanyahu's refusal to consider Palestinian statehood has not only dashed these hopes but has also derailed ambitious peace plans proposed by the US. One such plan, known as President Biden's 'grand bargain,' aimed to secure full diplomatic recognition for Israel from Saudi Arabia in exchange for Palestinian independence. However, Netanyahu dismissed the idea, stating that granting statehood to Palestinians would be a 'huge reward' for Hamas. Meanwhile, the leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, had his own expectations about the conflict. He believed that Iran and its allies would join the fight against Israel, but this did not materialize. Instead, Iran made it clear that it did not want a wider war, even as Israel intensified its military operations in Gaza. The conflict has also drawn in Hezbollah, a powerful militant group in Lebanon, which has engaged in skirmishes with Israeli forces. Israel's military response has been swift and severe, leading to significant casualties on both sides. The human cost of the war is felt acutely by those living in the affected areas. In Kibbutz Kfar Aza, a small community near the Gaza border, the memories of the initial attacks are still fresh. Zohar Shpak, a resident who survived the attack, recalls the horror of that day when Hamas targeted their community. The kibbutz, once a peaceful place, is now a site of mourning and remembrance for those who lost their lives. Zohar and other survivors express a desire to rebuild their lives, but they are still grappling with the trauma of the past year. Many residents believe that the only way to achieve lasting peace is to grant the Palestinians their independence, but there is a deep-seated mistrust between the two sides. Zohar admits that while he longs for peace, he does not trust the Palestinians. The situation in Gaza is equally dire, with families like that of Insaf Hassan Ali facing unimaginable hardships. Insaf describes the fear and uncertainty her family has experienced since the war began. They have been forced to move multiple times, living in tents and facing constant threats from airstrikes. Insaf mourns the loss of their previous life, filled with comfort and security. The ongoing violence has taken a toll on her children's health, leading to malnutrition and disease. The war has created a cycle of suffering that seems unending, leaving many people on both sides wondering if there will ever be a chance for peace. The international community watches closely as the situation continues to unfold, hoping for a resolution that can bring an end to the violence and suffering.