中國GDP：1兆元債券熱潮消退後預計經濟成長將從2025年開始下滑

China is expected to face significant challenges in implementing economic reforms as the impact of a massive 1 trillion yuan bond issuance begins to fade. The National People's Congress approved this bond issuance last month to maintain economic stability through 2024, focusing on reconstruction and disaster prevention. However, issues such as the sluggish property market, high youth unemployment, and local government debt are anticipated to decelerate China's economic growth from 2025. Chris Beddor, a China research expert at Gavekal Dragonomics, interprets this move as a sign of increased government support for the economy. Yet, he cautions that it may not bode well for future growth prospects. Financial analysts predict a slowdown in China's economic expansion post-2024, as the bond issuance is not a long-term solution to structural problems. Moody's Analytics projects China's economy to grow by 4. 9% in 2024 and 2025, but then to dip to 4. 3% in 2026. Other financial institutions have similar forecasts, with slight variations. The property sector, which has been a significant growth driver, is expected to remain weak. Major developers have defaulted on their debts, and the government's efforts to mitigate risks have not fully resolved the sector's challenges. This could negatively impact GDP until 2030. Additionally, government debt is likely to increase due to reduced income from land sales and increased spending. The COVID-19 pandemic has also left lasting damage, particularly in the form of high youth unemployment. China's economy, which previously enjoyed robust growth fueled by exports and investments, has been hampered by the pandemic and external economic weaknesses. Beijing officials are considering new policies and funding to address these economic challenges. Investments in public housing and urban renewal projects are expected to cushion the decline in property investment. Despite the potential for increased debt, there is a push to boost spending to support the economy and improve youth employment. Economic planners are also focusing on managing hidden debts and promoting employment among college graduates, aiming for a more controlled and orderly approach to these issues.