以色列與哈馬斯休戰：“每個人都厭倦了老一套”，但接下來會發生什麼？

A temporary truce between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has started to allow for a swap of prisoners and hostages. However, experts who have been watching the situation for a long time think that more fighting is likely to happen. Neither Israel nor Hamas has a clear plan for ending the war, and they are both waiting to see what the other will do next. Israeli soldiers are preparing for a tough battle with Hamas fighters who are well-hidden in underground tunnels in parts of Gaza City. nnMany Palestinian civilians have been forced to move to the southern part of Gaza by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). This move could lead to many people getting hurt if the fighting resumes. The United States, Israel's main ally, has shown concern about the possibility of many casualties and has advised Israel to have a solid plan to avoid the kind of widespread harm caused in the early stages of the war. However, the US is not pushing for a complete ceasefire at this moment. nnThe US wants to give Israel the chance to defeat Hamas thoroughly, preventing them from carrying out attacks like the one on October 7. But if the conflict causes too much suffering, the US might have to put more pressure on Israel to stop. The US is very angry about the attacks on Israel, but they haven't started to pressure Israel to stop the fighting yet. The current truce could help build trust and might lead to the US encouraging Israel to think about the next steps. But if the conflict starts again, Israel's international reputation could suffer. nnHamas may have gained more from the current situation than Israel. They've managed to drag Israel into a costly conflict. Israel can't win militarily without making some concessions to the Palestinians. The conflict has also drawn global attention and criticism, which could lead to Israel's allies urging them to change their approach. There's renewed support for a two-state solution to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, but it's still just talk. For real progress, it might be necessary for Israel's Prime Minister and his government to step down. nnIsrael has achieved some minor military goals, but the most challenging part of the battle in Gaza City is yet to come. They haven't made much progress with the tunnels or freeing the hostages, and they haven't managed to defeat Hamas. Israel might end up stopping their military campaign, which would allow Hamas to claim victory, but it would be a shallow victory amidst the devastation. If Israel continues to occupy Gaza, Hamas will have the chance to start a long-term resistance. nnUltimately, both Israel and Hamas could lose in this war. The initial shock of Hamas's actions has been overshadowed by international condemnation of Israel's bombing of Gaza. When the war ends, there might be a need for an international or regional presence to manage Gaza. Wealthy Gulf states might be willing to fund Gaza's reconstruction, but only if there's a solid political solution in place. Everyone is looking for a change from the repetitive cycle of conflict. The Gulf states want Israel to commit to a two-state solution and a clear plan for Gaza's future.