美國大選民意調查：誰領先──哈里斯還是川普？

On November 5, voters in the United States will head to the polls to choose their next president. This election is particularly significant as it could either result in Donald Trump securing a second term or Kamala Harris making history as the first woman president of the United States. Initially, the election was expected to be a rematch of the 2020 election, but the dynamics shifted dramatically in July when President Joe Biden announced the end of his campaign and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris. As election day draws near, the central question remains: will the outcome favor Trump or Harris? In the lead-up to the election, we will closely monitor the polls to gauge the impact of the ongoing campaign on the race for the White House. Recently, a highly anticipated debate took place between Harris and Trump, attracting an audience of over 67 million viewers. Following the debate, several polls were conducted to assess public opinion on who emerged victorious. A survey involving 1,400 registered voters revealed that 53% believed Harris won the debate, while only 24% favored Trump. This data indicates that Harris holds a five-point lead over Trump nationally, with support levels at 47% for Harris and 42% for Trump. Another poll, which surveyed 1,400 adults who watched the debate, yielded similar results, with 55% declaring Harris the winner and 25% supporting Trump. Despite these favorable perceptions of Harris's performance, the polls indicated no significant shift in voting intentions, as her lead remained unchanged at 46% to 45% compared to pre-debate figures. Furthermore, a poll of 3,300 likely voters showed Harris leading at 50% to 45%, although Trump experienced a slight decline from 46% in previous polling. The current data suggests that while a majority of debate viewers felt Harris performed better, this may not translate into increased voter support, as many Americans have already made their decisions regarding their preferred candidate. In the months leading up to Biden's withdrawal from the race, polls consistently indicated that he was trailing Trump. Although these polls were hypothetical at the time, they hinted that Harris might not fare significantly better. However, the race tightened after Harris began her campaign, and she has since developed a narrow lead over Trump in national polling averages. The latest national polling averages for both candidates are displayed below, rounded to the nearest whole number. The accompanying poll tracker chart illustrates how these averages have evolved since Harris entered the race, with trend lines indicating changes and dots representing individual poll results. While national polls provide a useful overview of a candidate's popularity across the country, they do not necessarily predict the election outcome accurately. This is due to the United States' electoral college system, where each state is allocated a number of votes roughly proportional to its population. A total of 538 electoral college votes are available, and a candidate must secure 270 to win. Although there are 50 states, most tend to consistently vote for the same party, meaning that only a handful of battleground states will ultimately determine the election's outcome. Currently, the polls in these battleground states are extremely close, making it challenging to ascertain who is genuinely leading the race. With fewer state polls available than national ones, we have limited data to analyze, and each poll carries a margin of error that could affect the reported numbers. Recent polling suggests that in several battleground states, the candidates are separated by less than one percentage point. This is particularly true in Pennsylvania, which is crucial due to its high number of electoral votes, making it easier for the winner to reach the necessary 270 votes. Historically, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have been strongholds for Democrats, but Trump flipped them in 2016. Biden managed to reclaim these states in 2020, and if Harris can do the same this year, she will be well-positioned to win the election. The race has shifted significantly since Harris became the Democratic nominee; on the day Biden exited the race, he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in these seven battleground states. The averages presented in the graphics above are compiled by 538, a part of the American news network ABC News. To create these averages, 538 collects data from various polling companies that conduct surveys both nationally and in battleground states. As part of their quality control process, 538 only includes polls from companies that meet specific criteria, such as transparency regarding the number of people surveyed, the timing of the poll, and the methodology used (telephone calls, text messages, online surveys, etc. ). This rigorous approach ensures the reliability of the polling data. At present, the polls indicate that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are closely matched, with only a few percentage points separating them both nationally and in battleground states. When the race is this tight, it becomes increasingly difficult to predict the winner. In previous elections, polls underestimated Trump's support in both 2016 and 2020. Polling companies are actively working to address this issue by refining their methods to better reflect the composition of the voting population. However, making these adjustments is a complex task, and pollsters must still make educated guesses about various factors, including voter turnout on November 5.