約旦河西岸可能成為以色列在更廣泛的戰爭中的“第三戰線”

The West Bank, a region in the Middle East, has seen a significant increase in violence. This escalation began when Israel initiated attacks on the Gaza Strip and engaged in conflicts with Hezbollah at the Lebanon border. There are growing concerns that the West Bank could become a new battleground in a broader war. Israel is currently at war with Hamas, a militant group that controls the Gaza Strip. However, Israeli soldiers and settlers withdrew from Gaza in 2005. Despite this, Israel continues to occupy the West Bank, which it seized along with Gaza during the 1967 Middle East war. On October 7, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, resulting in the deaths of over 1,400 people. This prompted Israel to retaliate, leading to the deaths of 3,500 people in Gaza. Israel is now preparing for a full-scale ground assault on Gaza with the aim of eliminating Hamas. Western countries that support Israel are apprehensive about the possibility of a wider war that could involve Lebanon, home to the Iran-backed group Hezbollah, and the West Bank. Violent clashes between Israeli soldiers, settlers, and Palestinians have already resulted in fatalities. Since October 7, over 70 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank, and Israel has arrested more than 800 people. Israeli forces conducted a raid and airstrike on a Palestinian refugee camp in the West Bank, killing at least 12 people. An Israeli police officer was also killed during the raid. The escalating violence poses a significant challenge to both Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA), the only internationally recognized Palestinian governing body. The Israeli military has stated that it is on high alert and preparing for potential attacks, including those by Hamas militants in the West Bank. Hamas is attempting to involve Israel in a two- or three-front war, including the Lebanese border and the West Bank. In Ramallah, there have been rare instances of public support for the military wing of Hamas, indicating a growing desire for armed resistance. However, not everyone is prepared to engage in combat. Some individuals, while appalled by Israel's assault on Gaza, are not willing to take up arms. They believe that the leaders of Israel and Hamas should be the ones to fight each other. Several factors are contributing to the rising tensions, but there are also elements that are limiting their scope. One such factor is the hundreds of arrests made by Israel. While these arrests have sparked outrage, they have also served to curb violence in the West Bank. In Gaza, Hamas has sufficient time to organize militarily. However, in the West Bank, Israel's occupation allows it to suppress potential threats on a daily basis, leaving little room for the development of military or political forces. The West Bank is a complex region consisting of hillside cities, Israeli settlements, and army checkpoints that divide Palestinian communities. Israel occupied the territory in 1967 and has since divided it into large areas under its control, small areas under full Palestinian control, and areas where control is shared between Palestinians and Israeli forces. Opinions on the benefits of violence vary across the region. Young men in refugee camps are more inclined to fight than those in Ramallah, where businessmen and senior Palestinian officials have much to lose from escalating violence. Another crucial factor in preventing further violence is Israel's security agreement with the PA, led by President Mahmoud Abbas. Abbas has condemned Israel's assault on Gaza, but his security forces have also suppressed demonstrations. The PA is keen to maintain peace and is concerned that large-scale protests could rapidly escalate. If Abbas were to lose control or fall ill, the situation could worsen. Israel is also concerned about potential 'lone wolf' attacks from Palestinians who harbor resentment towards the Israeli occupation. Even before the current crisis in Gaza, the West Bank had experienced a surge in violence. Israel intensified its military raids, and there was a wave of Palestinian attacks targeting Israelis. The Palestinian death toll until October 7 exceeded 220, and at least 29 people in Israel had been killed.