今年將率先突破全球暖化1.5攝氏度限制

This year is projected to be the first year to exceed the 1. 5 degrees Celsius limit for global warming, a significant milestone in climate change discussions. According to climate researchers, including Mark Poynting, 2024 is expected to be the hottest year on record, following a summer in India that saw the longest heatwave ever documented. In Prayagraj, India, two women were seen trying to cool off by drinking water from a public tap, highlighting the extreme conditions people are facing. One woman was holding a baby, while the other had a backpack on the ground, illustrating the challenges of coping with such high temperatures. The European climate service has indicated that global average temperatures are on track to rise more than 1. 5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, which would make 2024 the first calendar year to surpass this critical threshold. The primary cause of these rising temperatures is human-induced climate change, although natural factors like the El Niño weather pattern also play a role. Scientists are urging governments to take immediate action to address climate change, especially with the upcoming UN climate conference, COP29, taking place in Azerbaijan. Liz Bentley, the chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, emphasized that this record-breaking heat serves as a stark warning to governments about the urgent need for action to limit further warming. The high temperatures experienced this year are not just a random occurrence; they are largely attributed to human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels. The data suggests that only an unlikely and drastic drop in temperatures during the last two months of the year could prevent 2024 from being the hottest year on record. Projections indicate that 2024 could end up at least 1. 55 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, which is a concerning trend. The term 'pre-industrial' refers to the period between 1850 and 1900, when human activities began to significantly impact the planet's climate. Samantha Burgess, the deputy director of Copernicus, stated that this marks a new milestone in global temperature records. A bar chart illustrating global average annual temperatures from 1940 to 2024 shows a clear upward trend, with 2024 projected to be the hottest year yet. This is particularly significant because the Paris climate agreement, established in 2015, aimed to keep global warming below 1. 5 degrees Celsius to avoid the most severe consequences of climate change. While breaching the 1. 5 degrees Celsius limit does not mean that the Paris goal has been entirely abandoned, it does bring the world closer to a future where this threshold could be exceeded for an extended period. Last month, the UN issued a warning about the need for urgent action to combat climate change. The specific conditions of 2024 raise concerns, as the early part of the year was warmer due to the El Niño effect, which occurs when surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than usual. This phenomenon releases additional heat into the atmosphere, contributing to rising global temperatures. The current El Niño phase began in mid-2023 and has kept temperatures elevated. Over the past week, global average temperatures have consistently set new records for this time of year, according to Copernicus data. A line chart depicting daily average global air temperatures from 1940 to 2022 shows that 2023 and 2024 are significantly above previously recorded levels. Many scientists anticipate that the cooler phase known as La Niña will develop soon, which could lead to a temporary decrease in global temperatures next year. However, the exact impact of this transition remains uncertain. Ed Hawkins, a climate science professor at the University of Reading, stated that we will closely monitor developments as we move into 2025 and beyond. Nevertheless, with greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere continuing to rise rapidly, scientists warn that it is likely only a matter of time before new temperature records are established. The increasing temperatures are resulting in more intense storms, hotter heatwaves, and more extreme rainfall, which have clear consequences for people worldwide. Professor Hawkins stressed that stabilizing global temperatures by achieving net zero emissions is the only way to prevent further escalation of these disasters.