氣候變遷正在加劇索馬裡的問題 - 但仍有希望

For thousands of years, the people of Somalia have relied on herding camels as a primary source of livelihood. However, the country is currently grappling with a multitude of severe challenges, including drought, flooding, conflict, and the overarching issue of climate change. Despite these daunting obstacles, there remains a glimmer of hope among some Somalis regarding the future of their nation. Abdihakim Ainte, who serves as the climate advisor to the Somali prime minister, expresses a belief that Somalia is 'fixable. ' He views the country as a narrative filled with potential and promise, even in the face of over three decades of continuous conflict, which includes a civil war and various regional and clan disputes. The fact that climate change is exacerbating nearly all of Somalia's existing challenges adds to the complexity of the situation. One commentator has referred to climate change as a 'chaos multiplier,' as it intensifies existing tensions and deepens conflicts in fragile states like Somalia. It is important to note that Somalia, located in the easternmost part of Africa, is not responsible for the global climate changes that are occurring. The statistics surrounding climate change's impact on Somalia are staggering. The most apparent effects of climate change can be seen in the agricultural sector, which remains the backbone of the Somali economy. Approximately two-thirds of the population relies on farming and animal husbandry for their livelihoods. In 2022, Somalia experienced its worst drought in 40 years, an event that scientists estimate was made 100 times more likely due to human-induced climate change. The severity of the challenges facing Somalia became evident as a convoy of International Red Cross (ICRC) vehicles entered the arid scrubland that covers much of the country. Accompanied by armed guards, as is standard practice for Red Cross staff in Somalia, the reality of the situation became increasingly clear. The persistent drought has led to fierce competition among farmers and herders for access to water and grazing land. Sheik Don Ismail, a camel herder, shared his heartbreaking experience of losing all his camels during the drought. He explained that the land had dried up, and the fodder he cultivated on his small farm was insufficient to sustain his animals. 'The well became dry and there was no pasture, so the animals began to die,' he lamented. The dire circumstances have forced individuals like Sheik Don to defend their land, sometimes resorting to violence. 'There is no respect if you don’t have a gun,' he stated, highlighting the desperate measures people are taking to protect their livelihoods. The ongoing conflicts in Somalia, which are often rooted in clan rivalries, can easily escalate into larger battles over resources. Cyril Jaurena, who oversees the ICRC's operations in Somalia, warned that as access to boreholes and pastureland becomes increasingly scarce, local disputes may lead to violent confrontations. Drought is not the only issue plaguing Somalia; the country also faced devastating floods last year due to heavy rains that scientists attribute to climate change. These floods resulted in the loss of valuable soil, the deaths of hundreds of individuals, and the displacement of over one million people. The United Nations estimates that more than 1. 5 million children under the age of five are acutely malnourished in Somalia. In a hunger clinic operated by the Red Cross in Kismayo, a steady stream of mothers brings their malnourished babies for assistance. Many of these mothers have had to traverse dangerous territories controlled by the militant group al-Shabab to reach the clinic. The situation is dire, with approximately one-fifth of the population, whose lives have been disrupted by conflict and climate-related crises, now residing in refugee camps. In these camps, families construct makeshift homes from whatever materials they can find, such as old fabric, plastic sheets, and rusty corrugated iron. Unfortunately, international support is minimal. In one refugee camp near Garowe, families are required to pay for food, water, and even rent for the small plots of land where they build their shelters. After more than three decades of war, Somalia has fallen far down the list of international priorities, overshadowed by seemingly more urgent conflicts in places like Ukraine and Gaza. The UN estimates that Somalia requires at least $1. 6 billion to meet the basic humanitarian needs of its people this year, yet only $600 million has been pledged by donor governments thus far. The intertwined effects of climate change and conflict have created a large pool of potential recruits for the various armed groups in the country. Many individuals in the camps are desperate for income, and the easiest job available is often as a paid fighter for one of the many rival factions. Halima Ibrahim Ali Mohamud, a mother of five, expressed her fears for her husband and four sons who have taken up arms with a local militia. 'They were desperate, and when you are without food long enough, and your children are looking at you, you will do anything,' she shared, reflecting the harsh realities faced by many families. As I moved from one makeshift shelter to another, I heard similar stories of husbands and sons who had left to join the fight, with some tragically losing their lives. Despite the overwhelming challenges, there are signs of resilience among the Somali people. The local power station in Garowe has begun investing in renewable energy sources like wind and solar power. Abdirazak Mohamed, the CEO of the National Energy Corporation of Somalia (NECSOM), explained that these investments are not driven by international aid but rather by the recognition that renewable energy is more cost-effective than the diesel generators previously used. I also met Amina Osman Mohamed, a woman who arrived in the Garowe refugee camp with nothing but has since established a thriving café business. She shared her journey of borrowing food, cooking it, and reinvesting her profits to create a sustainable source of income. Amina's café not only supports her sick husband but also provides for her eleven children, including those of her widowed daughter. As I left Amina’s bustling café, I began to understand why some individuals, like the Somali prime minister’s climate advisor, remain optimistic about the future of their country. There is hope, but with climate change exacerbating the ongoing conflicts, Somalia will require continued international assistance to achieve peace and build resilience against the challenges posed by a changing climate.