提前大選後日本政治遭遇稀有劇變

Japan's political landscape has experienced a significant upheaval following a snap election that has left Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) without a majority. This election, which took place on October 27, 2024, was anything but ordinary. Typically, Japanese elections are characterized by their stability and predictability, but this time, the atmosphere was charged with tension and discontent. The backdrop to this election was a scandal that emerged last year, implicating several senior lawmakers and cabinet members from the ruling LDP. This scandal not only tarnished the party's image but also fueled public anger. The situation was exacerbated by economic challenges, including rising inflation, high living costs, stagnant wages, and a sluggish economy. As a result, voters expressed their frustration at the polls, delivering a strong message to the LDP. The outcome was a stunning blow to a party that has dominated Japanese politics for nearly seven decades, as it lost its single-party majority in the powerful lower house of the Diet. However, the election did not yield a clear winner among the opposition parties, which failed to present a united front or a compelling alternative to the LDP. Despite suffering significant losses, the LDP still managed to secure 191 seats, outpacing the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), which garnered 148 seats. Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies, remarked, 'This election appears to be about voters who are fed up with a party and politicians they see as corrupt and dirty. But it’s not one where they want to bring about a new leader. ' The future of the LDP remains uncertain, as its governing coalition has fallen short of the halfway mark of 233 seats in the 465-member Diet. The LDP's ally, Komeito, also lost several seats, including that of its leader. With Komeito holding only 24 seats, the LDP will struggle to form a majority. Prime Minister Ishiba, who was sworn in just weeks before the election, acknowledged the severity of the situation, stating that voters had 'expressed their strong desire for the LDP to reflect and become a party that will act in line with the people's will. ' One of the pressing challenges for the next government is Japan's aging population, which poses significant social and economic issues. As people cast their votes at polling stations across Tokyo, there was hope that Ishiba's leadership could revitalize the LDP's fortunes. However, the gamble he took has backfired, as both he and his party underestimated the depth of public anger and their willingness to act on it. To maintain power, the LDP will now need to forge a coalition with other parties, which will require negotiations and compromises. This is a remarkable shift for a party that has historically enjoyed a secure position in Japanese politics. The LDP has a strong track record of governance, and when the opposition took over in the past, it often ended poorly. Since regaining power in 2012, the LDP has won every election with little competition. Many Japanese citizens have resigned themselves to the status quo, viewing the opposition as unconvincing. A 66-year-old voter, Miyuki Fujisaki, expressed her conservative outlook, stating, 'I think we [the Japanese] are very conservative. It’s very hard for us to challenge and make a change. And when the ruling party changed once, nothing actually changed in the end, that’s why we tend to stay conservative. ' Although she was initially uncertain about her vote due to the fundraising scandal, she ultimately decided to support the LDP again. While the CDP made notable gains, analysts suggest that these results reflect more of a backlash against the LDP than a genuine endorsement of the opposition. Despite voters' desire for accountability, many feel there is no trustworthy alternative to lead the country. This leaves Japan in a precarious position, with a weakened LDP and a fragmented opposition. The nation has long been regarded as a model of political stability, a safe haven for investors, and a reliable ally of the United States in an increasingly tense Asia-Pacific region. The current uncertainty is concerning not only for the Japanese people but also for neighboring countries and allies. A fragile coalition government will face significant challenges in addressing economic issues, raising wages, and improving welfare for an aging population. Moreover, rebuilding the trust and respect of a public weary of political scandals will be a daunting task for the new government.