真主黨、以色列和伊朗接下來會做什麼？

In the Middle East, a significant event has taken place that could change the dynamics of the region. Recently, Israel carried out an assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, a militant group based in Lebanon. This act is seen as a major escalation in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, and it raises concerns about a potential wider conflict that could involve Iran and the United States. The future actions of these groups depend on three critical questions. First, what will Hezbollah do in response to the loss of its leader? The group has suffered severe setbacks, losing key figures in its command structure and facing disruptions in its communication systems. According to Mohammed Al-Basha, a security analyst, the death of Nasrallah will have significant consequences for Hezbollah, potentially destabilizing the organization and forcing it to rethink its military and political strategies. Despite these challenges, Hezbollah has vowed to continue its fight against Israel. The group still has thousands of fighters, many of whom have combat experience from the Syrian conflict, and they are eager for revenge. Additionally, Hezbollah possesses a considerable stockpile of missiles, which they may feel pressured to use before they are destroyed. However, if they launch a large-scale attack that results in civilian casualties, Israel's retaliation could be devastating, leading to widespread destruction in Lebanon and possibly involving Iran. The second question is about Iran's response. The assassination of Nasrallah is a significant blow to Iran as well, and the Iranian government is taking precautions to protect its own leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran has not yet retaliated for previous attacks, but hardliners within the regime are likely considering their options. Iran has a network of allied militias across the Middle East, including Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and various groups in Syria and Iraq. It is possible that Iran could instruct these groups to increase their attacks on both Israel and US military bases in the region. However, any response from Iran will likely be calculated to avoid provoking a full-scale war that they cannot win. The final question concerns Israel's next steps. Following the assassination, it is clear that Israel intends to continue its military operations without pause. The Israeli military believes that Hezbollah is currently on the defensive and aims to maintain pressure until the threat from Hezbollah's missiles is neutralized. Achieving this goal without a complete surrender from Hezbollah, which seems unlikely, may require ground troops to be deployed. The Israel Defense Forces have been preparing for this possibility, conducting training exercises near the border. However, Hezbollah has also been preparing for a potential conflict for many years. In his last public address, Nasrallah warned that an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon would present a 'historic opportunity' for his group. While entering Lebanon may be relatively straightforward for the Israeli military, the challenges of withdrawing could mirror the difficulties faced in Gaza, potentially leading to a prolonged and complicated situation. As the situation unfolds, many are left wondering what the future holds for the region.