川普的關稅有可能引發經濟動盪和選民反彈

Donald Trump, the current President of the United States, has been making headlines for his plans to impose significant tariffs on goods coming from Canada and Mexico, which are America's two largest trading partners. This situation has been developing for over a month, and it seems that the moment of truth is approaching. The concern for Trump is that these tariffs, which also include China, could lead to increased prices for both businesses and consumers in the near future. This could harm the US economy, which is a major concern for many Americans. In the last election, the economy and inflation were at the forefront of voters' minds, and Trump had promised to tackle these issues when he returned to the White House. He has successfully fulfilled several of his campaign promises, such as reducing federal jobs, tightening immigration policies, and recognizing only two genders. However, when it comes to inflation, the new Trump administration has not made significant progress. The soaring prices of everyday items, like eggs, have been a constant reminder of the inflation problem. While the mass culling of chickens due to bird flu has contributed to this issue, the rising cost of eggs has kept inflation in the spotlight for voters. Recently, Trump confirmed that a 25% tariff on goods made in Canada and Mexico would soon take effect, which caused the US stock markets to experience their largest decline of the year. This serves as an early warning of the economic turbulence that his policies could create. The tariffs on Mexican food imports, in particular, could hit American consumers hard, leading to higher grocery prices. A recent CBS survey revealed that 82% of Americans believe the economy should be a top priority for the President, while only 30% feel the same about tariffs. Furthermore, only 36% of respondents think Trump is prioritizing the economy significantly, compared to 68% who believe he is focusing on tariffs. Just 29% of people think Trump is addressing inflation adequately. Overall, public sentiment regarding the economy remains negative, with 60% of respondents describing it as 'bad,' a sentiment that mirrors last year's views. Trump's approval rating for handling the economy is closely aligned with his overall job approval, standing at 51%. This suggests that the success of his presidency, like those of his predecessors, will largely depend on the state of the economy. Clifford Young, the president of a polling company called Ipsos, notes that Trump is still in the early stages of his presidency, a time when Americans are generally more forgiving. Typically, this honeymoon period lasts about six months, but it can be cut short if the economy experiences a significant downturn. Trump argues that his tariffs will benefit US manufacturing, increase tax revenue, and encourage investment. However, most economists predict that prices for American consumers are likely to rise, potentially within a similar timeframe. On Tuesday night, Trump will address Congress in a primetime speech, where he will have the opportunity to explain that the short-term pain caused by his tariff plan will lead to long-term benefits. This is his chance to persuade the American public to maintain their support during his honeymoon period. Young expressed interest in seeing how Trump connects various issues, such as government efficiency, global tariffs, and immigration, to the economy. The challenge for the President is that there are signs of growing doubts about the economy, along with warnings of other challenges ahead. A recent survey conducted by the Conference Board, a non-partisan economic research organization, revealed a significant drop in consumer confidence, the largest decline since August 2021. The negative sentiment among US consumers is largely attributed to concerns about inflation and economic disruptions caused by rising tariffs. In January, inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, increased by 3%, marking a six-month high. The public appears to agree, as the CBS poll found that 62% of Americans reported that prices have been 'going up' in recent weeks. White House officials privately maintain that their efforts to cut government costs, reduce regulations, and boost energy production will ultimately lead to lower prices, even in the face of higher tariffs. However, they acknowledge that such efforts take time to yield results. In a television interview on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Trump plans to appoint an 'affordability tsar' to address the concerns of working-class Americans. Bessent mentioned that Trump believes he will take responsibility for the economy in six to twelve months, suggesting that the current economic conditions are a result of former President Joe Biden's policies. Although Tuesday's speech is not a formal State of the Union address, Trump will have the opportunity to discuss what he is doing and plans to do to address voter concerns. Any missteps could provide Democrats, who have been struggling to find an effective way to challenge the new President, with an opening. Their choice of rebuttal speaker, newly elected Senator Elissa Slotkin from Michigan, a state heavily reliant on trade, indicates that they are eager to focus on economic issues. At this moment, Trump is at the peak of his political power, and he seems willing to use that power to change how the US conducts trade policy, an issue that has been important to him for over forty years. However, history shows that many Presidents have faced difficulties due to negative public perceptions of the economy. Some financial disruptions are beyond the control of the White House, but with his decision on tariffs, Trump is making a high-stakes gamble that the American public will ultimately support his choices. If he is correct, the outcome could lead to a significant political shift on this issue. If he is wrong, it could undermine his chances for a second term before it even begins.