喬治亞人在歐洲的未來岌岌可危的關鍵時刻

In the country of Georgia, a significant parliamentary election is approaching on October 26, and it is a pivotal moment for the nation. The ruling party, known as Georgian Dream, has been in power for the past twelve years. The party's founder, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, has made a bold promise to outlaw the largest opposition party if his party wins the election. The central message from Georgian Dream is 'Choose peace not war,' and they are using the ongoing war in Ukraine as a backdrop for their campaign. Billboards across the country display images of destruction from Ukraine, such as bombed churches and ruined schools, contrasting them with peaceful scenes from Georgia. This strategy aims to suggest that the opposition could lead Georgia into a similar conflict, while Georgian Dream claims to be the party that can ensure peace. This message resonates deeply in a country of 3. 7 million people that shares a border with Russia and has experienced a brief but devastating war with its neighbor in 2008. The opposition, represented by several pro-Western coalitions, argues that the real danger lies in the potential loss of Georgian democracy and the opportunity to join the European Union. In December 2023, Georgia was granted candidate status to join the EU, but the accession process has been stalled due to rising anti-Western sentiments from Georgian Dream and the controversial 'foreign influence' law passed in June 2024. This law sparked massive protests among young Georgians, who viewed it as a threat to their democracy and future in Europe. Critics of the law believe it was modeled after a Russian law designed to suppress dissent. Ivanishvili, who is currently the honorary chairman of Georgian Dream, has stated that he will work to eliminate opposition groups if his party secures victory. He has labeled all opposition parties as a collective known as the United National Movement, or UNM, which is the largest opposition party in Georgia. During a rally in Batumi on October 10, Ivanishvili claimed that the UNM, supported by foreign interests, is attempting to seize power through unrest and chaos. He emphasized the need for Georgian Dream to win a constitutional majority in the upcoming elections to prevent this from happening. The ruling party's media outlets frequently highlight the risks of war and other threats, including bizarre claims that Europe aims to change Georgian culture and that local civil society groups are part of a Western conspiracy. In contrast, Nika Gvaramia, a prominent opposition figure, argues that the election is essentially a referendum on Georgia's future in Europe. Speaking to a crowd in Kutaisi, Gvaramia passionately declared, 'Our future is in Europe. ' His coalition is particularly focused on attracting younger voters, who were instrumental in the protests against the 'foreign influence' law. Gvaramia believes that the main issue at stake is how to protect their homeland from Russian influence and secure a future aligned with Europe. The opposition hopes that the upcoming vote will lead to the formation of the first coalition government in Georgia, ending what they describe as the one-party rule of Georgian Dream. However, with Ivanishvili at the helm, Georgian Dream remains confident in its ability to secure a decisive victory. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze recently stated that the party has reached a historical maximum approval rating, attributing this to the peace maintained in the country and the rapid economic growth over the past few years. Critics, however, point to the increasing number of Georgians leaving the country in search of better opportunities. Official statistics indicate that 243,000 people emigrated in 2023 alone. This raises questions about the government's claims of economic success. The opposition has also expressed frustration over the lack of polling stations for Georgians living abroad, with the Central Election Commission announcing only 60 polling stations in 42 countries. Many citizens, like Tamaz Neparidze, have lost faith in the electoral process and do not plan to vote. Neparidze, along with others from his village, has been protesting against a mining operation that they believe is damaging their community. The EU, US, and UK have all voiced concerns about the direction in which Georgian Dream is taking the country, citing issues of democratic backsliding and narratives that align with Russian interests. Recently, the UK froze its annual security dialogue with Georgia, highlighting worries about the decline of democracy and the government's anti-Western rhetoric. Meanwhile, many Georgians are more focused on local issues than international politics. Neparidze and his fellow protesters blame the mining company and the government for their struggles, expressing a sense of hopelessness about the future. As the election approaches, the atmosphere in Georgia is charged with uncertainty, and the outcome could have lasting implications for the country's path forward.